MC Market Poll: Nifty likely to end CY25 between 25,000 and 27,000; maximum 10% further fall possible

The latest Moneycontrol Market Poll saw participation of more than two dozen – 29 to be precise -- respondents across categories including broking firms, mutual funds, AIFs, PMS and independent experts.

A vast majority of market experts are of the view that the benchmark Nifty50 is likely to end the current calendar year between 25000 and 27000 – implying a best-case upside of around 7-8 percent from the current levels. While many believe that the markets have bottomed out for the year, they add that any further fall from current levels would be less that 10 percent.

These are some of the key findings of the latest Moneycontrol Market Poll, which saw participation of more than two dozen – 29 to be precise -- respondents across categories including broking firms, mutual funds, AIFs, PMS and independent experts.

In terms of the CY25 index targets, 55 percent of the respondents said they expect the Nifty50 to end between 25,000 and 27,000 while 21 percent said the benchmark could end the year between 23,000 and 25,000.

An equal 21 percent of the respondents had a more bullish outlook and said they expect the Nifty50 to end CY25 above 27,000. Meanwhile, a mere three percent of the respondents said the index could close the current calendar year below 23,000, implying a fall of around 8.5 percent from the current levels.

Incidentally, this also aligns with the majority view – 86 percent of the respondents -- that any further fall from the current levels would be limited to a maximum of 10 percent. However, 65 percent of the respondents also said that they believe that the markets have bottomed out for the year.

In terms of key risks facing the Indian stock markets, experts listed global/domestic geo-political issues, global tariff war and earnings slowdown as the three key concerns. This assumes significance as the Indian markets have been experiencing heightened volatility with a downward bias even after positives like strong GDP numbers and higher-than-expected rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

In terms of fund deployment, a vast majority of 62 percent said they would prefer to invest in large cap rather than mid- or small-cap stocks. Interestingly, an equal 62 percent said that the broader market indices -- BSE MidCap, BSE SmallCap, BSE 500 etc -- are currently overvalued.

In terms of foreign flows, 83 percent of the respondents said they do not expect any slowdown in FPI flows. The month of June, however, has again seen a reversal of trends with foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) currently net sellers at $236 million, after putting in $2.3 billion in May. IN CY25 till date, FPIs are net sellers at a little over $10 billion.