From Covid-19 to Trump's tariffs, disruptions keep creating new market leaders: Amit Jeswani

Amit Jeswani, founder of Stallion Asset. (Image: X/@Amit_Jeswani1)

As markets enter their fifth consecutive month of decline, Amit Jeswani, Founder of Stallion Asset, anticipates that tariffs will be the driving force behind the next phase of market movement. Speaking at Moneycontrol's Global Wealth Summit, Jeswani highlighted that US President Donald Trump's trade policies could be the biggest game-changer, ultimately paving the way for new market leaders in the upcoming bull cycle.

"Market trends are typically shaped by disruption," Jeswani explained. "COVID-19 forced China to reduce exports, which created a tailwind for chemical stocks. Similarly, the Ukraine war fueled demand for defense stocks. Now, the next major shift is expected in April when new tariffs take effect. With a 20 percent tariff on China and 0 percent on India, Indian companies could gain a significant advantage, opening up major opportunities for alpha generation."

Reflecting on the impact of COVID-19 on Indian markets, Jeswani pointed out how certain sectors led the charge while others were left in the shadows. Pharma, chemical, and IT stocks initially dominated, whereas PSU stocks were largely ignored. However, by October 2021—nine months after the bear market—PSU stocks had surged to prominence.

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Given this historical pattern, Jeswani suggested that stocks widely held by investors today may not necessarily be the leaders of tomorrow. Instead, he believes that neglected stocks will rise to the forefront in the next bull market.

Despite this long-term optimism, Jeswani acknowledged that 2025 may prove to be a tough year for generating substantial gains, emphasising that capital preservation should be the top priority for investors.

"The key to navigating 2025 lies in protecting capital. If we can get through this year without significant losses, we will be in a strong position to capitalise on the next wave of high-growth stocks. Bear markets typically last between 9-12 months, followed by a period of consolidation. If we can weather this phase, 2026 and 2027 could offer promising opportunities for another bullish run," Jeswani noted.

Looking ahead, he reiterated that the next market leaders will emerge from a combination of value and neglect. "The biggest opportunities often arise from sectors that have been overlooked but still possess strong intrinsic value. That’s where the next wave of market leadership will begin," he remarked.

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