People should start looking at quality names from the consumption pack, Jimeet Modi, CEO & Founder at Samco Group said in an interview to Moneycontrol.
Furthermore, he advised that one should also look at high quality businesses which are expected to have stable earnings irrespective of economy cycles.
As far as the risk is concerned, according to him, the outcome of the US election is the first risk to the US market. However, the rally in Crypto may get a further boost, if Donald Trump comes to power as the US President, said the Chartered Accountant who has more than 15 years of experience in equity research, investment analysis, and technology.
Do you think risks related to FPIs flows to the China factor have reduced now?
The outflows by the foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are expected to continue as India currently remains to be an expensive investment destination. It is seeing a good competition for the inflows into the China, Japan and the US itself. India has also seen a fantastic one way rise in its markets as well as increase in its weightage in premium indices like MSCI and other international gauges.
The current reversal in the Indian Benchmarks has to be seen as the mean reversion towards more average weight. So, we expect some FPIs related selling to continue, however, the good thing is that FPIs are not selling from their long only funds. The selling is coming from more passive funds or short -term tactical flows that are leaving India.
Will the US Federal Reserve prefer to be less aggressive in rate cuts going forward, considering the resilient economic growth?
The stance of US Federal Reserve is fairly clear from the beginning itself that their first eye is on the inflation. So, if inflation continues to soften, continues to trend downwards and without any real risks to inflation upside, we expect the US Fed will continue to cut the rates in accordance with their last dot plot and will not change their stance.
Do you see more Global risks than domestic ones for Indian equities and the economy in Samvat 2081?
The Global risk of a government with Democrats returning to the power in the US will mean that the continuance of geo-political situation like the war between Russia-Ukraine may continue. The continuation of Democrats in power may result in even escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war. However, if Trump-led Republicans come to power, we expect that, it will help in subsiding this tension related to war and the possibility of settling of the crisis also cannot be ruled out. The outcome of the US election is the first risk to the US market.
Second is, some of the Geo-Political events that are not accounted for yet. The China-Taiwan conflict is also a real threat, that is looming. If that does not play out than we do not expect any other global issue to impact the markets world over. As far as the domestic issues are concerned, the Indian INC’s earning slow-down in Q2 is a real risk and it has to be watched closely going ahead.
Which investment themes should be preferred for 2025 or Samvat 2081?
I think people should start looking at quality names from the consumption pack, the consumer durables pack. One should also look at high quality businesses which are expected to have stable earnings irrespective of economy cycles.
Do you expect the gold prices to remain elevated in 2025 as well? What are the major reasons behind the rally, and are there any emerging risk factors considering the consistent demand for the safe haven assets?
Gold, Silver and Cryptocurrencies, all three are passing through a strong uptrend. Gold is continuing to make new highs and this trend can continue for some more time. Even for Crypto, we anticipate that this asset class may also touch new highs. It appears that if Donald Trump emerges as the winner of the US Presidential election as Republican candidate, the rally in Crypto may get a further boost, as Trump has been the strong supporter of Cryptos, which are often referred as Digital Store of Value.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
