Brokerage Radar: Analysts bearish on Gujarat Gas, Bharat Forge; JPMorgan upgrades Lupin to 'Overweight'

Stock Market Trend

Check out the latest brokerage calls and analyst comments on the stocks in action today. Our coverage includes Gujarat Gas, Eicher Motors, Lupin, and more.

Gujarat Gas

CLSA On Gujarat Gas
Underperform Call, Target `420/Sh
Q1 Standalone Net Profit 6% Below Expectations
Q1 Profit Below Est As Disappointment In Margin Overshadowed Healthy Beat On Volumes
Mgmt Guided For 40% QoQ Decline In Q2 Volumes From Morbi
Mgmt Guided For Decline From Morbi Facility Due To Weak Biz Environment For Ceramic Tile Ind

Nomura On Gujarat Gas
Reduce Call, Target `470/Sh
Q1 Below Estimates, Impacted By Lower-than-anticipated Margin
Overall Volume Growth Guidance Cut To 6-7%; Morbi To Decline 30-40% In Q2
Co Remains Amongst Most Expensive Gas Utility Co Globally Currently Trading At 22.6x FY26 P/E

Jefferies On Gujarat Gas
Maintain Underperform, Target Cut To `450 From `460/Sh
Morbi Volume Has Declined 50% In July After Latest Price Hike
Focus Shifts To Defending The Margin
Cut FY25/26 Vols By 4%, in-Line With Lowered Co’s Guidance Of 5-7%
Cut FY25/26 EPS Estimates By 6%/5%

Bharat Forge

Jefferies On Bharat Forge
Maintain Underperform, Target Raised To `1,200 From `1,075/Sh
Defence Business Is Scaling Well & Subsidiaries Showing Signs Of Improvement
Like Co’s Structural Initiatives But Concerned On Cyclical Headwinds In Exports
Valuations Are Rich At Current Levels
Raise FY25-27 EPS Estimates By 2-3%

Citi On Bharat Forge
Sell Call, Target Raised To `900/Sh From `850/Sh
Slight Operational Beat In Q1; Domestic Segment Better Than Exports
PAT Was Supported By Higher Non-Operating Income
Domestic Rev Growth Was Much Better Than Est, Driven By Non-Auto Segment
Exports Revenue Was Weaker, Especially In The PV Segment
Outlook Remains Positive, Mgmt Is Optimistic On Demand Momentum In India
Downside Risks To Export Rev, & Current Valns Provide Little Margin Of Error
Continue To Value The Stock At 29xSep’25e EPS

PI Industries

Jefferies On PI Industries
Maintain Buy Call, Target Raised To `5,100 From `4,750/Sh
Positive Dvpts On Pyroxasulfone Patent Should Allay investor Concerns
Robust Growth Outlook Of New Product (Fluindapyr) Shd Aid Growth
Raise FY25/26 EBITDA Estimates By 2%
Co Remains Our Top Pick In Chemical Space

Citi On PI Industries
Buy Call, Target Raised To `5,125/Sh
Mgmt Confident Of Delivering ~15% Revenue Growth In FY25
EBITDA Aided By Continued Growth In Csm EXPORTS & Higher EBITDA Margin
Margins Benefited By Operating Leverage And Favourable Product Mix
Mgmt Expects Full-Year EBITDA Margin To Remain Around 25-26%
Domestic Agrochem Rev Impacted By Delayed Sowing & Erratic Monsoon Spread

Citi On Gujarat State Petronet
Sell Call, Target Raised To `315/Sh
1QFY25 Below Expectations on Both Volumes & Tariffs
Transmission Vols Increased 9% QoQ To 36 mmscmd, 6% Below Our Estimates
Realised Tariffs Were Also Below Well Expectations.
Lower Our FY25-27e Standalone EBITDA Est By 1-2% On Minor Adj To Our Vol & Tariff Est
Target Hikes As We Mark-To-Market The Value Of The Co’s Holding In GGAS

JPMorgan On Lupin
Upgrade To Overweight, Target Raised To `2,400/Sh
Believe Co Has More Legs To Grow, Despite Its Significant Outperformance
Outperformance Driven By Accelerating Momentum In Its US Business
Outperformance Driven By Support From Several Pdt Launches & Stable Generic Pricing Environment
India Business Inching Back To Double-digit Growth & Improvement In Core Business Margins
Co’s US Pipeline Looks Solid
Several Key Product Opportunities Driving A 13% Rev CAGR In US Business Over FY24-27
Expect Co’s Core Business Margins (Ex-FTFs) To Improve Nearly 400 bps, To 22% In FY27
Expect 29% Core Earnings CAGR Over FY24-27

Kotak Institutional Equities On MRF
Sell Call, Target Rs `97,000/Sh
Q1 EBITDA 7% Above Est Due To Better-than-Est Revenue Print & Cost-control Measures
Expect Demand Trends To Remain Steady & Coupled With Mkt Sha Gain, Augurs Well For Co
Current Uptick In Raw Material Basket Will Continue To Weigh On Margin
Stock Trading At 28x FY26 Consolidated EPS, Which Believe Is Expensive

Morgan Stanley  On ONGC
Overweight Call, Target Raised To `430/Sh From `302/Sh
Top Quartile Dividend Growth In Energy Globally Offers A Good Basis For Next Leg
Improving Incremental Return On Capital Employed Offers A Good Basis For Next Leg
Recovering Cash Flows In Intl Assets Offers Good Basis For Next Leg Of $12 Bn In Value Creation
Key Risks Include Any Decline In Oil Price Below Long-term Base Case Of $70/bbl
Key Risks Also Include Potential Reduction In Government Stake

Morgan Stanley On SAIL
Underweight Call. Target `110/Sh
Q1 Earnings Showed A Miss On EBITDA
Q1 Volumes Were 4.0 mt, +3% YoY & -12% QoQ, Broadly In-line
Revenue Was Slightly Above Forecast Of 1%
EBITDA Of `222 Cr, 9% Below Estimate

Jefferies On Eicher MotorsMaintain Buy, Target Cut To `5,500 From `6,000/Sh
Recent Weakness In RE Volumes Is A Concern
Co Should Be A Key Beneficiary Of 2-W Premiumisation
Toughest Phase Of Competition Is Behind
Cut FY25-27 EPS Estimates By 2-4%

Citi On Page Industries
Sell Call, Target Raised To `33,100/Sh
Weaker Than Expected Growth & Profitability In Q1
Expect Co’s Rev Growth Momentum To Remain Subdued In The Near Term
Note Decline In MBOs Continuing For 4 Subsequent Qtrs
Remain Cautious Given Lack Of Near-Term Catalyst, Specific Initiatives To Drive Growth
Trim Our FY25-27 EPS Est By 0-4%
Roll-Forward Our Target P/E (45x; Unchanged) To June-26 (From March 26)

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