BPCL Q2 PAT likely to be hit by forex losses, weak margins due to crude shock

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26 Aug, 2025 12:21

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Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) is likely to witness some pressure on its profit after tax (PAT) as forex losses are likely to take a toll. Crude prices have seen steady increase during the quarter under review. Brokerages also expect gross refining margins (GRMs) in the range of $5-7 per barrel for the quarter under review.

Here is a gist of what brokerages are estimating from the company.

Brokerage: Kotak Institutional Equities | PAT: Rs 1,355.7 crore

The brokerage house expects QoQ decline in EBITDA despite steady marketing margins, reflecting lower adventitious gains and higher forex-related loss.

It is assuming stable crude throughput at 7.7 million tonnes and 4% YoY growth in sales volumes to 10.2 million tonnes along with higher normalised refining margins at $5 per barrel.

Brokerage: Ambit Capital | PAT Rs 1,442.7 crore

It expects sequentially lower PAT due to lower marketing margin on weaker diesel and petrol profitability and higher forex-related loss. “We build in clean GRMs of $5.1 per barrel and inventory gains of $0.9 per barrel for the quarter.”

Brokerage: Axis Capital | PAT: Rs 2,360 crore

The brokerage firm expects GRM at $8 per barrel (including inventory gains of $1 pe barrel) and slight reduction in refining throughput QoQ. “We expect Rs 400 crore of inventory gains in marketing business coupled with 5% QoQ increase in marketing margin.”

ICICI Securities | PAT: Rs 2,106.8 crore

ICICI Securities said that revenues are expected to increase 10.1% QoQ to Rs 90,786.7 crore on account of a rise in product realisations due to high crude oil prices.

GRMs are expected to decline QoQ to $7 per barrel against $7.5 per barrel in Q1FY19 mainly on account of weak product spreads and lower inventory gains.