Mecklai graph: Will US labour sector improve?

Mecklai graph of the day - Will US labour sector improve

The ADP (Automatic Data Processing Inc) released its private payrolls change report on Wednesday, which measures the estimated change in the number of employed people in the US excluding the farming industry and government. The data posted a print of 119k in April, which was well short of 178k expectations.

Later today, the Bureau of Labour Statistics will be releasing the official non-farm employment change (NFP) report, which measures change in the number of employed people in the US excluding the farming industry. Expectations are for a print of 173k as compared with a reading of 120k in March. Besides this, it would also be releasing the jobless rate data, which is likely to remain unchanged at 8.2%.

As can be seen in the graph above, the ADP and NFP reports have improved steadily since the past few months, except in March when jobs fell partly due to Easter holidays. However, despite of steady rise in ADP/NFP figures, the jobless rate has not declined below 8.0%. As long as jobless rate continues staying above 7.0% - 7.5%, recovery in the world’s largest economy will remain fragile and this in turn is likely to maintain the existing QE3 speculation.

The below graph shows overall Employment Scenario in USA

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