JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon still sees risk of recession, 'skeptical' of 2% CPI target

Jamie Dimon has been warning for obver a year that US CPI may be stickier than expected.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is pencilling in only a 35-40 percent chance of a 'soft landing' for the US economy, adding that he is skeptical if the Federal Reserve can bring back CPI inflation down to the 2 percent target.

“I’ve always pointed to geopolitics, housing, the deficits, the spending, the quantitative tightening, the elections, all these things cause some consternation in markets,” Dimon said, in conversation with CNBC International on August 7, adding that the odds of a US recession were 'about the same' as his previous call.

Jamie Dimon also said that the US Fed will will likely cut rates soon. “I don’t think it matters as much as other people think,” he added.

Dimon had previous told Bloomberg in May 2024 that there were a lot of 'inflationary forces in front of us'. He added, “The underlying inflation may not go away the way people expect it to.”

Dimon has run the largest US bank for over 18 years, and has been warning for months that inflation could be stickier than many investors are predicting.

“My view is whatever the world is pricing in for a soft landing, I think it’s probably half of that. I think the chances of something going wrong are higher than people think,” he said in May.

Dimon's worries have been beyond the economic factors, and has called the global landscape possibly the most perilous in decades, given the geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, Israel, and Gaza, with repercussions for energy and food supply.

Earlier, in April, Dimon had said in his annual letter to shareholders, that too much attention has been paid to monthly swings in interest rates and inflation.

Jamie Dimon could be in consideration to be appointed as the US secretary of Treasury, if Republican candidate Donald Trump gets elected in the presidential election, set to take place in November.