Govt must explain huge revision in November gold import data, says GTRI

The government revised its gold import figures for November 2024 by $5 billion

The central government must explain the reasons behind a massive revision in the figures for gold imports in the month of November 2024 in the interest of transparency, think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said in a note on January 8.

"In the interest of transparency, the government must clearly explain the rationale behind this revision. Was there an error in the initial data compilation, or did Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCI&S) uncover discrepancies after further verification? Without a clear explanation, such revisions erode trust in official statistics, especially when no changes were made to the data compilation rules in November," GTRI's founder Ajay Srivastava said.

The government revised its gold import figures for November 2024 by $5 billion to $9.84 billion from $14.86 billion, as per data uploaded on the Commerce Ministry’s DGCI&S on January 8.

India's trade ministry is yet to officially explain the reason behind the sharp revision in the gold import numbers for November.

GTRI said the revision in the import data for gold also raises a critical question that if similar discrepancies could exist in the figures for other commodities or for different time periods.

The government must proactively review trade data to ensure that this is an isolated case and not indicative of a broader data accuracy problem, Srivastava added.

The revised figures for inbound shipments of gold in value terms are nearly 34 percent lower than what was previously reported on December 16, 2024.

The surge in gold imports as per the earlier figures widened India’s trade deficit to a record in November and pushed the Rupee to an all-time low.

India’s trade deficit had risen to an unprecedented $37.8 billion in November, as gold import showed a four-fold rise in November 2024 compared to $3.44 billion a year ago.

The reconciliation in the gold import data will shrink the historically high trade deficit figures for November.

"India’s trade data is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and international agencies to assess the health of the economy. Frequent or unexplained revisions can damage the credibility of India’s economic reporting, leading to uncertainty in financial markets and eroding confidence in government institutions," Srivastava said.