This year (2023-24), the Indian government had projected a peak power demand of 230 gigawatts (GW), but in reality, the demand soared to an unprecedented 240 GW instead. Now for next year (2024-25), the government is anticipating a peak power demand of 256.53 GW (256,530 MW).
In terms of units, the energy requirement in 2024-25 is expected to touch 1,736,357 million units (MUs). The projection for 2024-25 has been released by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) based on the demand surge patterns over the years, the electricity connections being added and the increasing share of industrial and commercial consumption.
It also states that except in one month, i.e. November 2024, the peak power demand in all other months will remain either close to 230 GW or above that mark. In November, the peak power demand is expected to be 215.65 GW.
"The CEA's projection for 2024 is almost seven percent higher than the actual peak demand met this year. They (CEA) arrive at this figure through a number of modelling. The Ministry of Power is gearing up to meet the projected demand next year and certain mandates such as blending of imported coal and operation of gas-based and imported coal-based power plants (under Section 11 of the Electricity Act) are likely to be followed through again," said a senior official at the Ministry of Power.
A striking change in the CEA's assessment is the month in which it expects the peak power demand to strike. Contrary to projections in the previous years, when peak demand was anticipated around June or July, in 2024-25, the CEA has projected the demand to hit 256.53 GW in September.
This is in line with this year's peak demand which for the first time hit a record 239.978 GW (239,978 MW) on September 1. However, the unusual surge in demand also resulted in an alarming spike in the country's power shortage, recorded at 10.745 GW (10,745 MW) on the same day.
But if seen in terms of the volume of electricity consumed, then the highest is expected to be in August 2024, with a projected energy requirement of 159,302 MUs.
Region-wise, the CEA has projected the Western region to have the highest energy requirement of 548,745 MUs in 2024-25, followed by the Northern region with 508,733 MUs, Southern at 447,189 MUs, Eastern at 209,025 MUs, and Northeastern at 22,666 MUs.
The peak power demand for the Northern region is expected to touch 90.6 GW (90,612 MW); 76.43 GW (76,437 MW) in the West; 73.1 GW (73,114 MW) in the South; 36.3 GW (36,337 MW) in East; and 4.2 GW (4,297 MW) in the Northeastern region.
According to government officials, coal-fired thermal power plants are going to play the most important role in 2024-25 as well, contributing up to 70-75 percent of the total energy mix during peak demand hours. This is because India still does not have round-the-clock renewable energy due to a lack of energy storage systems.
As on August 31, India had a total installed electricity generation capacity of 424.287 GW (424,287.70 MW), of which coal-fired capacity amounts to 206.19 GW (206,195.50 MW), which is about 49 percent. Renewable energy sources account for 131.51 GW (131,514.62 MW), which is about 31 percent. Hydropower plants account for 46.85 GW (46850.17 MW), which is 11 percent. The rest of the installed capacity is from gas, lignite, diesel and nuclear-based power plants.
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