For India’s weight-loss segment, 2025 is the warm-up, 2026 to be inflection point

weight loss

For India’s pharmaceutical sector, 2025 is shaping up to be the year of the blockbuster launch, a period defined by high-value, patent-protected therapies finally reaching the urban elite. But market veterans know the real revolution isn't happening now. It’s scheduled for 2026.

While 2025 has been crucial for establishing the clinical credibility of GLP-1 agonists like semaglutide (Wegovy) and tirzepatide (Mounjaro), 2026 marks the "patent cliff" that will fundamentally democratise weight loss in India, transforming a luxury lifestyle treatment into a mass-market commodity.

The entry of global heavyweights—Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro—has ignited an unprecedented frenzy. Mounjaro, launched in India in March 2025, shattered records by clocking over Rs 100 crore in sales within just four months. By October 2025, it had overtaken established antibiotics like Augmentin to become the country's top-selling drug brand by value, a historic first for an anti-obesity medication.

Mounjaro (tirzepatide) was launched in India in March 2025, while Wegovy (semaglutide) followed in late June 2025. Yet, their usage remains concentrated in metros and affluent states, highlighting a significant access gap. Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk followed suit with the launch of Wegovy (semaglutide) in June 2025.

The weight-loss segment sales crossed Rs 1,000 crore within a short time.

Despite the demand, access remains restricted by price.

Until recently, Wegovy’s monthly cost exceeded Rs 16,000 per syringe, while Mounjaro pens were priced upwards of Rs 20,000.

A mid-November steep price cut for Wegovy triggered a 70 percent spike in consumption, proving price elasticity is real. But even after reductions, therapy costs remain prohibitive for middle-income households, especially when paired with diagnostics and lifestyle programmes that urban providers bundle for safety and efficacy.

In India, expenditure on medicines is largely met out-of-pocket, while weight loss therapies are still seen as a discretionary spend.

This exclusivity is why 2025 is viewed merely as the preamble. The volume growth is currently limited by affordability, but the value growth signals a massive, latent demand waiting to be unlocked.

The narrative shifts dramatically in 2026. The patents for semaglutide are set to expire in India, opening the floodgates for domestic pharmaceutical giants.

Indian pharma heavyweights like Dr. Reddy’s, Cipla, Sun Pharma, and Biocon are already in the advanced stages of developing generic versions.

The entry of these Indian generics is expected to slash prices by 50-70 percent. This price correction will be the catalyst that moves weight-loss therapy from niche cosmetic clinics to general practitioners' prescription pads across Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities.

Dr. Reddy's CEO Erez Israeli has already signalled aggressive intent, planning to launch generic semaglutide in India and other emerging markets as soon as patents lapse in 2026.

The transition from 2025 to 2026 represents a shift from "value" to "volume." Sheetal Sapale, VP, Commercial, at Pharmarack, notes in a recent presentation that the current surge is driven by a fundamental behavioural shift.

"The sudden increase is an indicator of an increase in willingness to take a corrective action for obesity problems," says Sapale.

She highlights that unlike acute therapies (like antibiotics), these chronic lifestyle drugs see sustained consumption. However, she points out a critical distinction: while patented brands like Mounjaro currently face no competition, the landscape for older molecules is already crowded.

Analysts say that as prices drop below the psychological Rs 5,000/month barrier, the patient base could expand from thousands to millions, mirroring the trajectory of statins or metformin. With India often dubbed the "diabetes capital of the world," accessible weight-loss drugs could become a frontline tool for managing metabolic disorders, potentially reducing the long-term burden of cardiovascular and chronic kidney diseases.