Worst of heat wave over; see timely monsoon: Skymet

While the monsoon may start on time i.e. on May 30 or June 1, but the real monsoon season will begin post 6 or 7 June, says Jatin Singh of Skymet.

In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Singh says the worst of the heat wave in India is almost over and thunderstorms can be expected between May 30 to June 3.

Below is the transcript of Jatin Singh’s interview with CNBC-TV18’s Shereen Bhan and Nayantara Rai.

Q: Any relief expected? The Met says no expected relief over the next 48 hours at least. What is your forecast?

A: From May 30 to June 3 you have a series of thunderstorms hitting North India, Central India, East India. So, I think the worst is almost over now and it should get better in a couple of days.

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Jatin Singh

CEO|Skymet Weather Services

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Q: What about the monsoon, there were reports that seem to suggest that perhaps the onset of the monsoon could be delayed. Is the monsoon on track?

A: In principle, I think there will be a timely onset. The IMD has to declare it, I think it is going to be subjective but the real monsoon is probably going to come about – you could have an official kind of onset around June 1 but the real monsoon is about a week late. I mean the west coast, the Kerala monsoon is only going to start climbing around June 6 or 7.

Q: What are the forecasts now telling you as far as the possible impact of the El-Nino?

A: We are sticking to 102 percent. I still don’t think that from all the data that is available to us at this point of time that it is going to have a very adverse impact. The El-Nino is strong in the region 3.4 near South America has actually amplified to 2.6 degree celsius above the threshold. However all our statistics and all our models are still showing that 2015 should be a decent and normal monsoon.

Q: You are sticking by your forecast of 102 percent of the long range forecast?

A: Yes, 102 percent. A lot of scribes have made this sound like a political issue. We have a set of calculations and it is these sets of calculations that in 2012 we were able to tell well before time of below normal monsoon, in 2013 we said it was going to be a normal monsoon. In 2014 first we said below normal monsoon and then drought and we were right. For all the work that we have done I still don’t find a reason for me to recalibrate my forecast and we are looking at the data everyday. If there is a possibility for change we will update it. However right now it is 102 percent.

Q:You talked about scribes setting this up as a battle between you and the MET department but we would imagine that you are looking at the same data points and you are saying that you expect a normal monsoon, the MET department is forecasting a sub-par monsoon at this point in time and hence the confusion?

A: All scribes work out Reuters wires. It is computing, experience and how you look at it in the essence of it so, yes a lot of the data is similar but we have built our models maybe differently and maybe they have something that I don’t or maybe I have something that they don’t that only time will tell.

Q: Most people would like to hear what you have to say because the MET is predicting sub-par monsoon, you are saying that it is expected to be a normal monsoon this year and that is what is required to give a fillip to the agriculture sector which is in distress at this point in time. How do you see the agri story panning out if we do go as per your forecast?

A: If I am right, then you are looking at a very good bumper yield because the year that follows a drought which 2014 was, the soil chemistry actually recharges and the sown area actually increases. This year also you have got the added benefit of a pretty strong pre-monsoon. Everybody is complaining about the heat wave-the heat in India in the summer of 2015 came in very late, almost basically the last week of May. So, all these added and if what I am saying is going to happen, then you are looking at very good bumper harvest but if the monsoon fails, then this will be the third season of agricultural failure. Kharif 2014 was a drought, we all know what happened to Rabi 2014-15 and if that is followed by another sub-par as in below normal or a drought, then we are in very serious trouble. I hope and I think our Skymet scenario will play out.