El Nino effect: Skymet forecasts below normal monsoon at 95%

After a year of normal monsoon, India could again bear the brunt of a weak monsoon.

Private weather forecaster Skymet today said the country's monsoon could be below normal at 95 percent. The margin of error for the forecast is plus or minus 5 percent.

"The culprit to be blamed is the notorious El Niño, whose effect will be visible July onwards. Most of the weather models are indicating towards 60 percent chance of El Niño coming into existence during the second half of the monsoon," the forecaster said in a report. "An evolving El Niño is harmful for the performance of monsoon."

State-run IMD has not come yet come out with an official forecast though it has said it does expect the impact of El Nino to be very disruptive.

Last year had seen above average rains across the country after two years of severe drought.

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Jatin Singh

CEO|Skymet Weather Services

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This year, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and the eastern states are the ones that may see healthy rainfall, Skymet CEO Jait Singh told CNBC-TV18.

Gujarat, Konkan, Goa, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu are the states that are most likely to see below average rainfall, he added.

According to the forecaster, the overall probabilities for monsoon are:

- 0 percent chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110 percent of long period average)

- 10 percent chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110 percent of LPA)

- 50 percent chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104 percent of LPA)

- 25 percent chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95 percent of LPA)

- 15 percent chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90 percent of LPA)