Why a normal monsoon isn’t always good news

Crop output doesn't always correlate with normal monsoon

A "normal" monsoon rainfall doesn’t necessarily translate to strong crop output. The relationship between the June-September monsoon rainfall and crop production is complex, with factors such as distribution and timing of precipitation playing a larger role in determining crop yields.

In the years India saw normal monsoon, spatial distribution played a big role in determining crop output, whereas despite below-normal rainfall, crop output did not contract in 2023.

As the forecast is of an above-normal monsoon, with rainfall likely to be 105 percent of the 50-year average of 87 cm, expectations are that India will witness a good season but experts indicate a lot hinges on spatial and temporal distribution of rain.

“IMD monsoon forecast bodes well for kharif and rabi crop output… We have seen years where overall monsoon was normal but distribution was uneven (either spatial or temporal), which impacted crop output and food prices,” said Gaura Sengupta, chief India economist, IDFC First Bank.

Sengupta cited 2024 as an example, when a record deficit in August, despite overall monsoon being normal impacted kharif production.

A Moneycontrol analysis shows that a normal monsoon though a necessary condition is not a sufficient one for a good crop season.

2022, for instance, witnessed an above normal monsoon with rainfall averaging 106 percent, but overall output increase was just 0.22 percent for foodgrains, as Southern peninsula witnessed excess rainfall of 122 percent during that period.

In contrast, despite 2021 being a normal monsoon year with rainfall at 99 percent of long period average, output was 3.2 percent higher.

2020 was no exception as Southern peninsula states, key for rice production, witnessed 129 percent higher rainfall, while northwest India experienced deficient conditions, but crop output rose 4.7 percent.

“Geographical volatility and spread of rainfall plays a crucial role in good crop output and we have witnessed extreme volatility over the last few years. Southern peninsula’s output becomes important during this period. Our analysis reveals that compared to the rest of India, South Peninsula is more vulnerable to the vagaries of monsoon, despite the sharp increase in irrigation facilities since FY19,” said Paras Jasrai, Economist and Associate Director, India Ratings and Research.

IMD data shows that despite experiencing normal or above normal monsoon for five of the last six years, foodgrain production increase has not been even.

“From a temporal perspective, rainfall activity in July and August is most important, as by then majority kharif sowing is over. Meanwhile, from a spatial distribution perspective, rainfall activity in major producer states which have low irrigation coverage is important,” Sengupta said.

Most of the southern peninsula and western states got "large excess" rainfall in July 2022, whereas northern states of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh faced "large deficient" or deficient rainfall.

In 2024, the number of very heavy rainfall events was the highest during the monsoon season but most of these were in late August and September and limited to Rajasthan, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu. Bajra and ragi production was lower from the previous year. Rajasthan accounts for a third of India’s millet production.