UNFCCC report: Window to limit global warming to 1.5°C rapidly closing, urgent action needed

The first-ever stocktaking scheduled to conclude at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) at the end of this year at UAE

The window to keep limiting global warming to 1.5°C within reach is closing rapidly and progress is still inadequate, making a strong case for urgent need to raise ambition and implement existing commitments, according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) global stocktake report released on September 8.

The global stocktake is a process where countries and stakeholders collectively assess the progress made so far towards meeting the goals of the Paris Climate Change Agreement, identify the challenges and come up with actionable steps. The stocktake takes place every five years, and the report is a part of the first-ever stocktake scheduled to conclude at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP28) at the end of this year.

“Global emissions are not in line with modelled global mitigation pathways consistent with the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, and there is a rapidly narrowing window to raise ambition and implement existing commitments in order to limit warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels,” the report said.

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The 2015 Paris climate accord, which was signed by 195 parties, committed to limit the rise in global average temperatures to well under 2C and ideally to 1.5C from pre-industrial times. The agreements also included a pledge to cut emissions by 43 percent by 2030 using 2019 as a base year, and reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. With effects of global warming becoming more visible amid a slow pace of progress in meeting targets, climate activist and experts warn the targets are becoming increasingly unachievable and more action.

Responding to the global stocktaking, Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, COP28 President-Designate, called out to leaders from both the public and private sector to come to COP28 with real and actionable commitments to address climate change.

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“We need to rapidly decarbonize both the supply side and demand side of the energy system at the same time. We need to triple renewable energy by 2030, commercialize other zero carbon solutions like hydrogen and scale up the energy system free of all unabated fossil fuels, while we eliminate the emissions of the energies we use today,” he said.

He highlighted the need to protect and enhance nature, safeguard carbon sinks and transform food systems that account for one third of emissions.

“We need fundamental reform of the international financial architecture that was built for the last century,” he said.

Time is Running Out

The report warned that time is running out and there is an urgent action and support is needed to ramp up implementation of domestic mitigation measures by realizing opportunities across all sectors and systems to meet the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) targets.

All signatories of the Paris Agreement, including India, have communicated NDCs that include their individual mitigation targets and the steps they would be taking.

“Achieving net zero CO2 (carbon dioxide) and GHG emissions requires systems transformations across all sectors and contexts, including scaling up renewable energy while phasing out all unabated fossil fuels, ending deforestation, reducing non-CO2 emissions and implementing both supply- and demand-side measures,” the report said.

Notably, the COP27 agreements last year said that there is need to accelerate efforts towards the phasedown of unabated coal power and phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.

The report also highlighted the climate financing challenges faced by developing nations.

“Assessment of collective progress on adaptation has revealed an urgent need to rapidly scale up finance for adaptation, to meet the growing needs and priorities of developing countries,” the report said.

While still small, the share of adaptation in mobilized climate finance increased – from 20 percent in 2017–2018 to 28 percent in 2019–2020 – and grew at a higher rate than mitigation finance. The report highlights the need for accelerated action to scale up climate finance from a wide variety of sources, instruments and channels, and that public finance alone is not sufficient to address the gap between financing needs and current finance flows, particularly in developing countries.

The stocktaking comes at a time when India has piloted an ambitious agenda under its G20 presidency to address climate change issues and support sustainable development.

In an interview to Moneycontrol on September 6, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for more positive global action to combat climate change, instead of focusing on restrictions, criticism, and blame.