Can G20 save us from the climate crisis? Numbers don’t add up

The G20 countries are home to nearly two-thirds of global population, all of whom are suffering the devastating consequences of the climate crisis. This year’s host, India, is still recovering from back-to-back climate-induced disasters, from heat waves to floods, and now a looming drought situation across the southern peninsula. Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, while taking over the G20 presidency from Indonesia, in December 2022, announced “Today, the greatest challenges we face – climate change, terrorism, and pandemics – can be solved not by fighting each other but only by acting together.”

G20 members had earlier agreed on the Indonesian island of Bali to pursue efforts to limit the rise in global temperatures to 1.5° Celsius, including speeding up efforts to phase down unabated use of coal. India, the world’s second-biggest consumer of coal, said it would prioritise a phased transition to cleaner fuels and the slashing of household consumption to achieve net zero emissions by 2070 to meet its decarbonisation pledge.

These announcements, despite the uptick in the uptake of fossil fuels, gave the climate optimists some hope. However, the Energy Transition Ministerial in Chennai in July, which was poised to deliver on progressive proposals such as a commitment by countries to triple the global renewables capacity by 2030, failed with parties unable to arrive at a common understanding. Particular pushback came on the language around “fossil fuel phase down” from major producers such as Saudi Arabia, China, and Russia, supported by countries like South Africa and Indonesia, citing a lack of tangible and meaningful finance.

And since then, it has been a downhill ride, with a real risk of backsliding on the progress made in Bali. The ministerial discussions provided a clear sign that any language around peaking global emissions will have to come alongside commitments and guarantees of finance and technology.

While developing nations emphasised the need for developed countries to achieve net-zero emissions by 2040, considering historical cumulative emissions, others emphasised the need for a global peaking of emissions no later than 2025, which received pushback as many saw this as something the developing world would have to carry as most developed countries have already peaked.

Disappointed with the outcome of the ministerial meetings, COP28 President-Designate Sultan Al Jaber and Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell issued a joint statement stating, “The outcome did not provide a sufficiently clear signal for transforming global energy systems, scaling up renewable and clean energy sources and responsibly phasing down fossil fuels. This year, more than ever, unity is a prerequisite for success. Globally, the world has experienced its hottest summer on record, climate change continues to impact people every day, particularly the climate vulnerable, and they are looking to us to take decisive action.

As it is, while several G20 members mention plans to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels gradually, France is the only G20 member to commit to phasing out fossil gas and oil exploration on its own territory in its long-term strategy and while 16 G20 members refer to renewable energy as a key part of their decarbonisation strategies, only a few provide specific targets. Meanwhile, a new analysis by energy think tank Ember finds that per capita coal power pollution in more than half of the G20 economies is declining. However, despite continued decline, the top two coal polluters — Australia and South Korea — are still far ahead; a position they have held since 2020.

Climate optimists are hoping that the Indian Presidency will use its diplomatic skills at the Leaders' Summit in New Delhi, to convince G20 nations to make commitments to reduce emissions (recognising the incompatibility between fossil fuel dependence and the 1.5°C target), deliver on existing finance commitments, and provide greater support on action for adaptation and Loss and Damage in the COP agenda, and most importantly, ensure climate action is undertaken in a just, equitable, and inclusive manner. However, all signs so far indicate that, no, G20 will not rescue the world from the climate crisis.