Spring cut short: Warmer days ahead for India but no heatwave likely in March

There is an enhanced probability of heatwaves during the March to May season over many parts of central and adjoining northwest India as a whole, the IMD said.

After an uncomfortably warm, or rather hot, February, which broke a few records for its abnormally high temperatures, India is fearing the worst with the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting warmer days ahead.

So could we see a rerun of last year's prolonged and intense heatwave from March to May when the mercury crossed 49 degrees Celsius in some parts of Delhi? March 2022, it may be mentioned, was the hottest in 122 years ever since IMD started maintaining records.

Also Read: Health Ministry lists 'dos and don'ts' for protection against heat wave

Hot days ahead

According to the IMD’s seasonal outlook for March to May released on February 28, India may not have it too easy this year too. The Met department has forecast warmer days, with temperatures likely to settle above normal from March to May as a whole for most parts of India, barring southern parts of the country.

The World Meteorological Organization has also warned of a global rise in temperatures in the backdrop of a transition from La Niña conditions to an El Nino summer later this year, even though it has not said anything specifically about India.

“The first triple-dip La Niña of the 21st century is finally coming to an end. La Niña’s cooling effect put a temporary brake on rising global temperatures, even though the past eight-year period was the warmest on record,” said WMO secretary-general Petteri Taalas. “If we do now enter an El Niño phase, this is likely to fuel another spike in global temperatures,” Taalas said in a statement on March 1.

Talking of extreme heat, heatwave conditions are more likely in April and May and less in March, SC Bhan, IMD’s head of the Hydromet and Agromet Advisory Services, said in a virtual press conference while releasing the seasonal outlook.

There is an enhanced probability of heatwaves during the March to May season over many parts of central and adjoining northwest India as a whole, the IMD said. But at the same time, it said there is a low probability of heatwaves only over some parts of central India in March.

Though it has forecast warmer days, the IMD did not speculate or specify if we could see a repeat of last year’s scorching summer. A heatwave can cause dehydration, heat cramps, exhaustion or even heat stroke when people are exposed to high temperatures and the sun.

The prolonged absence of rain over the northern hemisphere, West Asia, and Europe, coupled with anti-cyclone activity and clear skies, led to unusually warm conditions, Bhan said, adding specific shorter area-wise forecasts will be issued on a seven-day basis.

India as a whole recorded 44 percent deficient rainfall in January and February, aggravating the warm conditions, the IMD said. February alone saw a 68 percent deficit in rain. The IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall over most areas of northwest, west central India and parts of the east and northeast in March.

Hottest February since 1901

At 29.54 degrees Celsius, the monthly average maximum temperature over the Indian region was the highest for February since 1901 while the minimum temperature for the month was the fifth highest at 16.31 degrees Celsius in the same period, the IMD said.

In February, temperatures 8-9 degrees above normal were reported from across the west and northwest. If Delhi recorded 33.6 degrees Celsius on February 20, the highest since 2006, Mumbai reported 36.5 degrees Celsius a day before. Parts of Bhuj in Gujarat experienced 40 degrees Celsius.

According to Mahesh Palawat, vice-president of private forecaster Skymet, warm days seem to have become the norm. “India witnessed the warmest February in the last 122 years. The December of 2022 was the warmest on record. Now the February of 2023 turns out to be the warmest in the last 122 years. The monthly national average maximum temperature was 1.73 degrees above normal over the country. The average minimum temperature also remained 0.81 degrees above normal in February.”

Dissecting the data, Palawat said the average maximum temperature in February over northwest India was 24.86 degrees Celsius whereas the average maximum temperature of Delhi was 27.7 degrees Celsius. “The year 2016 was the hottest with an average minimum of 16.82 degrees Celsius in February. This year, the average minimum temperature was 16.31.”

April and May to be hotter

Palawat warned the picture does not seem to be rosy in the coming months. “As per the long-range forecast, March, April and May will witness higher-than-average temperatures. The frequency and intensity of heat waves may be more than average. This is not good news for the kharif crop.”

Interpreting IMD’s weather charts differently, SN Mishra, former director of climate science and weather, Indian Air Force, feels the probability of heatwaves over northwest India and the Indo-Gangetic plains is nil in March through April and May would be hot.

“It appears that most of the moderate to severe heat waves would most likely occur in April and May,” he said. April and May, he said, are anyway hot in the northwest and central parts of the country and three-four heatwaves are common in the summer months.

In any case, there seems to be no indication of severe heating over northwest and central India in the next 15 to 20 days, which substantiates near-normal March temperatures, he said.

In February, although day temperatures were high, the nights generally remained near normal due to terrestrial cooling, which helped the rabi crops, Mishra said. “In March, the temperatures are expected to be near normal or marginally higher and do not pose any significant threat to the rabi crop.”

The unusual heat in February had initially prompted the IMD to issue heatwave warnings in Gujarat and warn the high temperatures could affect the wheat crop. Bhan said in the presser that though warnings were issued, the temperatures did not meet the heatwave criteria.

Also Read: Met Office forecasts heatwave in March-May, above-normal temperature across India

The climate change debate

So are early summers and a shorter spring the new normal and is it anyway linked to climate change? Most experts had varied views.

“We are all living in an area of global warming but to link these episodes to global warming is a matter of research and diagnosis,” Bhan said in response to a question if climate change is to blame for the hot conditions.

Mishra also refused to put the blame on climate change. “As we know, the absence of rainfall and clouding, along with an anti-cyclone activity over Gujarat and Maharashtra for almost 15 days, spiked the temperatures," he said, adding it was a rare occurrence.

Palawat, however, felt the world is heating up higher than expected and we can attribute these changes to global warming and climate change.

“An increase in greenhouse gases leads to the warming of the atmosphere. When winter ends, it gives way to spring and then summer,” he explained. In the last few years, the spring season has been shrinking and the transition from winter to summer has been very quick, Palawat said.

GufranBeig, founder project director, SAFAR (System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting and Research), said La Nina is fading away after the longest spell of this century and El Nino is arriving. “This means an intense summer and unusual extremes and this is what we are witnessing. More surprises are in store. These are early indications of climate change.”

Explaining the early summers, Raghu Murtugudde, emeritus professor at the University of Maryland, said the warming up of the Middle East, Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Mediterranean are big factors for India. “They are all warming much faster than global warming. The upper-level winds are setting an anticyclone or winds at the surface, which is trapping the heat.”

Raghu said the changing weather is a combination of global warming and seasonal circulation. “If an El Niño begins to evolve, then the heatwaves should be confined to the north and northwest and not affect peninsular India much. We will have to wait and see.”

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had earlier warned India and parts of South Asia were likely to face more frequent and intense heatwaves and extreme rain in the coming decades.

India lost 118.3 billion work hours in 2019 due to extreme heat, The Lancet Countdown report on health and climate change 2020 said.