National Coal Index dips 13%, indicating robust domestic supply

Gevra coal mine in Chhattisgarh.

The National Coal Index (provisional) has showed a sharp decline of 13 percent in November compared to the year ago period, indicating adequate supply of the vital fuel, the latest coal ministry data seen by Moneycontrol shows.

The National Coal Index (NCI) is a price index that combines coal prices from all sales channels — notified prices, auction prices, and import prices. It considers prices of coking and non-coking coal of various grades transacted in the regulated (power and fertiliser) and non-regulated sectors.

A drop in NCI indicates sufficient availability of coal in the market to meet the growing demands of the country. It signifies a more equitable market, harmonising supply and demand dynamics.

Here is a month-on-month comparison of NCI for Indian coal:

The Ministry of Coal has compiled data till November 2024 so far.

India met a peak power demand of 250 gigawatts (GW) in 2024, an all-time high for the country, and even though it was lower than the projected demand of 256 GW, at least 70 percent of it was fuelled by coal-fired (thermal) power plants.
Thermal power generation across the country also hit an all-time high in 2024, touching 176 GW to meet the peak demand, according to the power ministry. In 2024, India added about 4 GW of coal-fired power capacity.

For 2025, the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has projected the peak power demand of 270 GW in the summer season, with coal-fired thermal power going to meet most of the demand.

In 2024, coal production reached an all-time high of 1,039.59 million tonnes (MT), marking a 7.28 percent growth from the previous year. The growth reflects the government's strategic efforts to enhance domestic coal availability to meet the country's growing energy demand as well as that of manufacturing industries.

Even in the Index of Eight Core Industries (ICI), the coal sector demonstrated a growth of 7.5 percent to 199.6 points in November compared to 185.7 points in the year-ago period.

The ICI measures the combined and individual performance of production of eight core industries — cement, coal, crude oil, electricity, fertilizers, natural gas, refinery products, and steel.

"The index of coal industry has reached 172.9 points during April-November 2024 as compared to 162.5 points during the same period of last year, showcasing the highest growth of 6.4 percent among the all eight core industries," the coal ministry said in a statement.

The driving force behind the positive development can be attributed to a significant surge in coal production in April-November period, the ministry said. The government has been focusing on optimising coal production and infrastructure development to reduce its dependence on imported coal.

Coal accounts for about three-quarters of India’s power generation and its demand continues to rise despite the country’s renewables plans. India has seen a spike in peak demand for electricity in the past two years, even as it has struggled to add renewable energy capacity in line with its goal of 500 gigawatts of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030.