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Moody's slashes India growth forecast to 0.2% for 2020-21

Moody's said the economic costs of coronavirus crisis amid the near shutdown of the global economy are accumulating rapidly.

April 28, 2020 / 08:50 PM IST

Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday slashed India growth forecast for calendar year 2020 to 0.2 percent, from 2.5 percent projected in March. For 2021, Moody's expects India's growth to rebound to 6.2 percent.

In its report titled - Global Macro Outlook 2020-21 (April 2020 update), Moody's has lowered G-20 advanced economies as a group to contract by 5.8 percent in 2020.

Moody's said the economic costs of coronavirus crisis amid the near shutdown of the global economy are accumulating rapidly.

It expects G-20 advanced economies as a group to contract by 5.8 percent in 2020. Even with a gradual recovery, 2021 real GDP in most advanced economies is expected to be below pre-coronavirus levels.

China's economy is forecast to grow by 1 percent in 2020.

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COVID-19 Vaccine

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How does a vaccine work?

A vaccine works by mimicking a natural infection. A vaccine not only induces immune response to protect people from any future COVID-19 infection, but also helps quickly build herd immunity to put an end to the pandemic. Herd immunity occurs when a sufficient percentage of a population becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. The good news is that SARS-CoV-2 virus has been fairly stable, which increases the viability of a vaccine.

How many types of vaccines are there?

There are broadly four types of vaccine — one, a vaccine based on the whole virus (this could be either inactivated, or an attenuated [weakened] virus vaccine); two, a non-replicating viral vector vaccine that uses a benign virus as vector that carries the antigen of SARS-CoV; three, nucleic-acid vaccines that have genetic material like DNA and RNA of antigens like spike protein given to a person, helping human cells decode genetic material and produce the vaccine; and four, protein subunit vaccine wherein the recombinant proteins of SARS-COV-2 along with an adjuvant (booster) is given as a vaccine.

What does it take to develop a vaccine of this kind?

Vaccine development is a long, complex process. Unlike drugs that are given to people with a diseased, vaccines are given to healthy people and also vulnerable sections such as children, pregnant women and the elderly. So rigorous tests are compulsory. History says that the fastest time it took to develop a vaccine is five years, but it usually takes double or sometimes triple that time.

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"India extended a nationwide lockdown to 40 days from 21 days, but relaxed restrictions in rural areas to facilitate agricultural harvesting in the second half of April. The country has determined that many of these areas are free of the virus. India also plans a phased opening of different regions while continuing to carry out identification and contract tracing," Moody's said.
PTI
first published: Apr 28, 2020 08:47 pm

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