MC Analysis | India to have 4 trade partners in $100-bn bracket by 2030

India's trade club set to expand

The number of countries trading with India with a value exceeding $100 billion will double to four by FY30, if exports and imports keep up the current pace, a Moneycontrol analysis has found.

Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar on November 13 noted that the country was confident of achieving $100 billion of trade before the 2030 target date.

Trade with Russia recorded a compounded annual growth rate of 60 percent over the last five years, as India has become the primary destination for Russian fuel exports.

This also shows that India has large trade imbalances with Russia. In FY24, the trade deficit with Russia ballooned to $57 billion, making a 14-fold jump from FY20.

Russia is not the only country to enter the $100-billion club, the United Arab Emirates is expected to reach the goal faster.

Merchandise trade (exports and imports) had grown to $83.7 billion from $59 billion in FY20. The trade has expanded faster since the countries signed the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement in 2022. At the current growth rate, trade between the two economies is expected to reach $141 billion.

As of FY24, India's trade with the US and China stood at $100 billion. While India ran a $35-billion trade surplus with the US, its trade deficit with China was $85 billion in 2024.

India’s merchandise trade deficit increased from from $161 billion in FY20 to $241 billion in FY24.

The $50-billion club

The number of countries with trade value above $50 billion with India is also set to increase to nine from four in FY24, with Australia, Singapore, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia joining the group.

Since FY20, trade with Australia has grown 17.5 percent annually, while that with Indonesia has expanded by 11.4 percent. Trade with Singapore reached $35 billion in FY24, growing at 10.8 percent annually.

In FY24, around 34 percent of the country's trade was with just four nations, each with over $50 billion worth of exports and imports with India. Another 10 percent is with the three economies with trade above $30 billion but below $50 billion, and 22.5 percent is with the 10 economies in the $20-30 billion trade club.

Over the last five years, trade with the over $50 billion group has expanded much faster, at 12.7 percent per annum, compared with 8 percent growth seen by economies in the $30-50 billion group and 8.5 percent growth by $20-30 billion group economies.