India GDP: Fitch cuts FY21 growth projections further, expects 10.5% contraction

Fitch Ratings has revised India's gross domestic product (GDP) outlook for FY21, stating that it will contract 10.5 percent, as against an earlier estimate of -5 percent.

According to official data released on August 31, India's GDP contracted 23.9 percent during the April-July quarter, hammered by the COVID-19 pandemic and a consequent stringent lockdown.

Fitch forecasts global GDP to contract 4.4 percent in 2020, a slight upward revision from the earlier projection of -4.6 percent.

"Official data have now revealed the extent of the economic dislocation in 2Q20 with world GDP falling by 8.9 percent yoy and many countries seeing falls in output of a fifth or more," Fitch said in a statement.

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"The UK, India, France, Italy and Spain stand out, having experienced stringent and/or lengthy lockdowns in 2Q20 which saw mobility (visits to retail and recreation venues) levels fall very sharply and 2Q20 GDP surprise on the downside compared with our June GEO estimates," Fitch added.

The US is expected to contract 4.6 percent in 2020, as against a previous estimate of -5.6 percent, Fitch said.

The Eurozone is expected to contracted 9 percent in 2020, a slight downward revision from the earlier projection of 8 percent.

Fitch also revised it's estimate for China, projecting GDP growth of 2.7 percent, from an earlier estimate of 1.2 percent.

According to Fitch the COVID-related recession was severe but also a short one.

"A host of indicators across the majority of GEO economies point to a faster sequential increase in GDP in 3Q20 to date than we were previously anticipating," Fitch Ratings said.