Expect Q4 GDP growth of 7.2%: Icra

The economy is likely to show a marginal uptick in the March quarter, with gross value added (GVA) growth expected at 7.2 percent from 7.1 percent in the previous three-month period, domestic ratings agency Icra said today.

"We anticipate a marginal pickup in growth of GVA at basic prices to 7.2 percent in March quarter from the initial 7.1 percent forecast by the CSO for December quarter," Icra Senior Economist Aditi Nayar said in a note.

The government will release the growth numbers for the fourth quarter and the full year next week.

She further said if the uptick materialises, it will be in contrast to the slowdown in growth recorded in the March quarter relative to the December quarter in the previous three fiscal years.

For the fourth quarter ending March, Icra expects performance of agriculture, forestry and fishing to improve somewhat to 0.2 percent from the 1 percent contraction in December quarter.

The agency further said in the December quarter, a shortfall in the kharif or summer crop had impacted the GVA growth. As against that, the third advance estimates indicate an uptick in rabi production of wheat, oilseeds and pulses compared to the final estimates for the previous crop season despite lower sowing of rabi crops as well as unfavourable rainfall and soil moisture levels.

Icra expects real manufacturing growth to have declined to 9 percent in the March quarter from the high 12.6 percent in the previous quarter and added that the contraction in WPI inflation will impact the GDP deflator.

Service sector growth is likely to have eased marginally to 9.3 percent from 9.4 percent in the previous quarter, following a contraction in services exports, it said.