A tenth of EU exports to Indonesia, Vietnam under threat as US seals trade deals

US to hurt EU in more ways than exports

The European Union’s troubles with the US’ tariff policy extend well beyond the 30 percent duty that President Donald Trump has threatened to impose on its goods entering the United States from August 1.

The bigger threat is the competition it faces in third-country markets where Washington has secured favourable trade deals.

Around 12 percent of EU exports to Indonesia and Vietnam, two key markets for 27-member bloc, could be in trouble after the US struck bilateral agreements with the two countries, a Moneycontrol analysis has found.

In Indonesia, which signed a trade deal with the US on July 15, the potential disruption is significant.

“Indonesia will pay the United States a 19% Tariff on all Goods they export to us, while U.S. Exports to Indonesia are to be Tariff and Non Tariff Barrier FREE,” Trump announced on his social media platform Truth Social.

This zero-tariff access allows American exporters to compete directly with EU businesses in nearly $1.3 billion or 12.7 percent of the bloc’s total exports to Indonesia.

In Vietnam, the US is likely to go head-to-head with the EU in goods worth $1.5 billion, which account for 12.3 percent of European Union’s exports.

The US trade deal with Vietnam, reached on July 3, levies a 20 percent tariff on imports from the Southeast Asian nation, while its exports incur no duty.

The situation could worsen if the US signs a comparable agreement with India, as Trump has hinted.

While only 10.6 percent of EU exports to India overlap with potential US expansion, the value of the exports is higher at around $5.5 billion.

“Indonesia was great… he’s a great president. We made a terrific deal; he opened up the entire country to trade with the United States… I think something similar will happen with India,” Trump said on July 15.

From metal scrap, medical tools and pet food

In India’s case, European exporters will likely have tough competition from US suppliers in sectors such as ferrous and aluminium scrap, which together accounted for over $1 billion in EU exports to India in 2024.

Other categories at risk include medical, surgical and dental equipment (valued at over $300 million), vehicle parts and accessories, and apples, should India relax its import tariffs.

Even niche segments like pet food, where demand is growing rapidly in India, may see heightened rivalry. The EU exports around $50 million worth of pet-related products to India annually.

The analysis considered product categories where the annual trade exceeds $5 million, the US has room to grow exports and the export gap between the United States and EU is less than 50 percent.