Most brokerages positive on Dish TV post Q4, but trim estimates

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26 Aug, 2025 12:21

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DTH service provider Dish TV India on Monday reported an almost fourteen-fold jump in its consolidated net-profits at Rs 482.77 crore for the quarter ended March. This was on account of a deferred tax expense of Rs 402.90 crore.While this was largely above the general street expectation, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) growth missed estimates of most of the brokerage firms. However, these research firms are largely positive on Dish TV stock in the long-term, considering the key management takeaways, as reported by CNBC-TV18.1) Guidance for average revenue per user (ARPU) increase of 3-4 percent in FY17 majorly driven by HD push, tariff hikes and overall improvement in economy. 2) For FY17, Dish is expecting 1.5 million net additions— in-line with FY16— as it expects digitization to move sluggish given the ongoing court cases. 3) Management is of the view that content cost would be in the range of 7-9 percent year-on-year growth, which rose 12 percent quarter-on-quarter for Q4 (March quarter) due to heavy sports in the same period. However, no big content renewal is coming for the next 6 months and until there are TRAI outcomes. Further, Dish expects FY17 EBITDA margins to improve year-on-year. 4) The company would show full income tax rate FY17 onwards as they utilized most of their tax credits. Dish’s recent accounting change of adjusting the share premium account will help them pay dividends. 5) Dish TV is hopeful that by July the decision would be taken by the government on DTH license renewal.6) Dish has no plans to manufacture set-top boxes in India unless if the gap between taxation when manufactured in India and when imported increases.On account of these factors, Bank of America Merrill Lynch has a stable outlook and reiterates neutral rating for the stock with a target price of Rs 92. Similarly, JP Morgan is overweight on the stock with a target price of Rs 115.00 against the previous price of Rs 120.00.  With a target price of Rs 108.00, Credit Suisse has maintained 'outperform' rating for Dish on the back of in-line quarter. CS, further believes, digitisation progress is the key near-term trigger for the company's performance.CLSA has maintained its buy rating on the stock citing by strong subscription additions and profitable growth and has a target price of Rs116 for the stock. Ambit believes the management has given a lukewarm guidance but it is still on course. The broking firm has reduced the FY17/18 revenue and profitabilityestimates, citing muted subscriber addition outlook for FY17  and elevated cost structure.  It has a buy rating with a target price of Rs107. The downside risks it sees is ARPU deterioration due to poor quality of incremental subscribers.