Lupin Q2: Analysts expect 5% growth in PAT YoY

Drug producer Lupin's consolidated profit after tax is likely to go up by 4.7 percent year-on-year to Rs 279.3 crore in the second quarter of FY13.

Analysts on an average expect revenues to grow by 24 percent to Rs 2,200 crore from Rs 1,772 crore during the same period, driven majorly by its acquisition of Japan's Irom Holdings Company in November 2011.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) is seen going up by 6.3 percent YoY to Rs 430 crore for the quarter. Operating profit margin is expected to be at 19.5 percent in the quarter ended September 2012 as against 22.8 percent in a year ago period.

Investors should watch out for currency impact as the currency depreciation added 7 percent to the topline in first quarter of current financial year.

Analysts expect 28 percent growth in revenues from advanced markets (ex- Japan). Within that the US formulation business is expected to contribute USD 15 million.

The loss of revenue from Geodon due to increase in competition will be compensated by Combivir (USD 7 million) and Lexapro (USD 3.4 million) generic, analysts say.

Additionally Seroquel plus Oral Contraceptives (OCs) are expected to add to US sales in the quarter.

Analysts expect 25-30 percent growth in semi regulated markets while the domestic formulation business is expected to grow over 15-20 percent YoY, which will include the Eli Lily deal.

EBITDA is expected to be in a range of 19-22% odd while some analysts are even expecting an expansion on the back of a low base, favorable currency and better product mix.

Analysts feel the profit after tax could be affected by higher tax rate during the quarter.

The stock price rose 27 percent in the year 2012. It has touched a life-time high of Rs 626 on September 10 and then fell 9% to its current market price.