UltraTech Cement Q3FY26 Preview: Volumes to drive growth amid pricing pressure

Analysts will keep an eye on pricing sustainability, fuel cost trends and demand recovery across regions as key monitorables.

• UltraTech Cement Q3FY26 revenue seen up 18.9% YoY to Rs 21,142 crore
• Volumes expected to rise 15–21% YoY, driven by acquisitions and new capacities
• EBITDA margin expected to rise to 17.0% despite pricing and fuel cost challenges.

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UltraTech Cement is expected to report a healthy year-on-year performance in Q3FY26, supported by strong volume growth driven by acquisitions and incremental capacity additions, even as pricing pressure and elevated fuel costs cap sequential margin expansion. The cement major is set to announce its Q3FY26 earnings on January 24.

According to a Moneycontrol Poll of 7 brokerages, revenue is estimated to grow 18.9% YoY, increasing from Rs 17,779 crore in Q3FY25 to an estimated Rs 21,142 crore this year, reflecting a strong topline recovery. PAT is expected to rise 18.3% YoY, improving from Rs 1,363 to Rs 1,612, supported by better operating leverage and profitability. Meanwhile, the EBITDA margin is projected to expand by 40 bps YoY, increasing from 16.3% to 17.0%, indicating continued improvement in operating efficiency despite cost pressures.

What will drive earnings

Volumes to rise 

UltraTech’s cement volumes are expected to grow around 15–21 percent year-on-year in Q3FY26, led by consolidation of acquired assets and ramp-up of new capacities, according to brokerages. BNP Paribas estimates UltraTech’s volumes at 36.7 million tonnes, implying 21 percent YoY and 9 percent QoQ growth, driven by inorganic additions and seasonal recovery in demand. HSIE notes that while total volumes should rise around 15 percent YoY, like-to-like growth is lower at 8 percent, reflecting still-muted underlying demand.

Realisations under pressure, but resilient

Cement prices remained under pressure during the quarter, particularly in the South and East, following the GST rate cut and weak demand in October–November, according to brokerages. BNP Paribas estimates UltraTech’s blended realisation at Rs 5,717 per tonne, down 1 percent QoQ but up 1 percent YoY. Elara Securities also expects 2 percent sequential decline in realisations for the industry, though UltraTech’s diversified regional presence is likely to limit the downside.

Cost efficiencies to partly offset fuel headwinds

Fuel costs, especially pet-coke, remained elevated during Q3FY26, with US pet-coke prices averaging around $115–120 per tonne, according to JM Financial and Elara Securities. However, benefits from operating leverage, logistics optimisation and higher green energy usage are expected to partially offset cost pressures. BNP Paribas expects UltraTech’s EBITDA per tonne at around Rs 965, up 2 percent YoY and 6 percent QoQ, aided by scale benefits and cost efficiencies.

EBITDA and profitability to improve

UltraTech’s consolidated EBITDA is expected to grow ~23 percent YoY and ~15 percent QoQ to about ₹35,460 crore, according to BNP Paribas estimates, driven by strong volume growth and operating leverage. EBITDA margins are seen improving to ~16.9 percent, compared with 15.8 percent in the previous quarter, though brokerages caution that margins remain below peak levels due to pricing pressure. Elara Securities also flags that Q3FY26 margins are likely at a four-quarter low on a sequential basis, despite healthy YoY growth on a weak base.

Capacity additions to support medium-term growth

During the quarter, UltraTech commissioned around 1.8 mtpa of cement capacity, including 0.6 mtpa at Dhule (Maharashtra) and 1.2 mtpa at Nathdwara (Rajasthan), according to brokerages. The company has guided for around 8.8 mtpa of additional cement capacity commissioning in Q4FY26, which should further support volume growth going forward.

Key monitorables

Analysts will keep an eye on pricing sustainability, fuel cost trends and demand recovery across regions as key monitorables.