Coronavirus pandemic | Fate of H-1B visa holders hangs in balance; what does it mean for IT industry’s future?

The fate of H-1B visa holders continues to be dicey even as the Indian government and industry body NASSCOM are talking to the US government regarding the same.

According to a recent news report, the Indian government has asked the Donald Trump administration to extend validity of H-1B and others visas held by Indian nationals.

On April 8, Indian Foreign Secretary took up the matter with US Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun.

According to a report in The Times of India, NASSCOM has requested the Department of Homeland Service and the US Citizenship and Immigration Services to extend the 90 days grace period given to leave the country after the visas expire.

However, the Trump administration is yet to respond to the issue. This is unlike the United Kingdom, where the government has announced that it would extend visas for all foreign nationals till May 31. The European Union (EU) has also extended the stay for 90 days for those whose visa is about to expire.

In an earlier conversation, Netra Chavan, who manages one the largest H-1B and H4 community Facebook groups, said that the administration has not provided clarity on visa that have expired or about to expire.

This lack of clarity over the issue in the US is what is keeping the community on tenterhooks, visa holders suggest.

Visa holders are worried given that amid the novel coronavirus pandemic, it would be hard to find a job within the 60-day timeframe when your existing employment terminates. They are also at the risk of being deported, if they are unable to change their visa status.

Thus, any decision by the Trump administration will not only have a bearing on the Indian community, but also the tech ecosystem there.

There are over five lakh Indian H-1B visa holders in the US and many of them have been waiting to get their green card for more than a decade. Majority of these visa holders are employed in tech companies, including giants such as Apple, Google and Microsoft.

For most tech firms, Indian techies constitute a significant portion of their workforce. In fact, some firms have made Indian kiosk a mainstay in their cafeteria. “Well, our office had a section just for Indian food like idly and dosa. So we never had to worry about food when I had to travel for work to the headquarters,” said a senior executive, who worked in the US-based tech major.

Will the industry collapse if these techies were sent home?

IT outsourcing sector is the biggest beneficiary of the H-1B visa by far. There are hundreds of techies who are citizens, green card holders and to-be-green card holders. It would not be too much of a stretch to say that it was the H-1B visa that lured thousands into the profession.

However, there is no way that the system would collapse by thousands returning. It has happened before and the industry has proved it is resilient.

Yes, in the short-term, business will suffer. The IT industry has been through ups and downs for decades and has shown resilience. They have better cash reserves and robust a business model that will tide them over.

The bigger question would be: will the IT outsourcing landscape remain the same? Analysts suggest that post-COVID-19, business models are bound to change in more ways than one.

International travel ban imposed since March has impacted sales. Few analysts Moneycontrol spoke to said that travel restrictions are here to stay for next few months and they might be here to stay. Also, during lockdown, IT companies are struggling to enable work from home (WFH) for its workforce, which has impacted project delivery.

Though the IT majors have managed to let majority of its workforce to WFH, Phil Ferst, in his blog has questioned if large enterprises still have the appetite to keep outsourcing when this is over. “We may emerge from this situation with a very different outsourcing landscape,” he said in the blog.

According to him, in the post-COVID-19 world, outsourcing industry may be the first vital piece of the global economy to come under the microscope as nations, businesses and societies try to build a blueprint for what the economy may look like.