Crude palm oil to continue bullish momentum, up 1.4% during the week

Crude palm oil futures edged higher to settle at a near-record high of Rs 1,249 per 10 kg after touching a fresh lifetime high of Rs 1,253.40 on Friday during intraday. There were no global cues as Bursa Malaysia Bhd (BMD) was closed for the long weekend.

It ended the week with a gain of Rs 17.2 or 1.40 percent on the domestic bourse. Crude palm oil prices rose in three out of the five trading sessions on the MCX.

The agri commodity has been trading higher than 5, 20, 50, 100 and 200 days’ simple moving averages and exponential moving averages on a daily chart. The momentum indicator Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 62.67, which indicates bullish movement in the prices.

Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported Malaysian palm oil stock near 15.5 lakh tons by the end of April against market expectation of 15 lakh tons. The export for May 1-10 has reached near 4.5 lakh tons, up by around 30 percent month-on-month.

“BMD was closed for the long weekend and will be opening directly on Monday as Malaysia will be celebrating the Eid festival. Malaysia’s palm oil exports had increased 12.6
percent to 1.34 million tons in April from 1.19 million tons in March due to rising demand from the main importing countries. Palm oil stock decreased 24.4 percent to 1.55 million tons in April from 2.04 million tons in April 2020,” said Kshitij Purohit, Product Manager, Currency & Commodities, CapitalVia Global Research Limited.

In the futures market, Crude Palm Oil (CPO) for May delivery touched an intraday high of Rs 1,253.40 and an intraday low of Rs 1,240 per 10 kg on MCX. So far in the current series, CPO has touched a low of Rs 997 and a high of Rs 1,253.40.

CPO delivery for May gained Rs 6, or 0.48 percent to settle at Rs 1,249 per 10 kg with a business turnover of 4,420 lots.

CPO delivery for June jumped Rs 6.20, or 0.51 percent to Rs 1,229.40 per 10 kg with a business volume of 3,127 lots.

The value of May and June’s contracts traded on May 14 was Rs 190.87 crore and Rs 107.40 crore, respectively.

Next Week's Strategy

Purohit said for the upcoming week, Crude Palm Oil is likely to continue its bullish momentum towards Rs 1,280 mark. Traders may find the buy-on-dips opportunity in MCX CPO from the downside support around Rs 1,235.00-1232.00, keeping a stop loss at Rs 1,220 to chase the target at Rs 1,275.