Western Uttar Pradesh sees electoral dynamics shift as RLD joins BJP-led NDA

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, a coalition of SP, BSP, and RLD secured significant seats, challenging the BJP's stronghold.

With Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) aligning with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), Western Uttar Pradesh, a significant battleground in Indian politics, is witnessing a dramatic shift in electoral dynamics.

Traditionally crucial for the BJP, this region's evolving political landscape is impacting the strategies of major political players.

This marks the fourth instance of the two parties joining forces, with Jayant Chaudhary leading the RLD. The roots of the NDA-RLD partnership go back to 1983 when the Lok Dal, under Chaudhary Charan Singh's leadership, allied with the BJP for municipal polls in Delhi, challenging the dominance of the Congress.

RLD’s national spokesperson, Anil Dubey, reiterated the mutually beneficial nature of the alliance, emphasising their shared history of achievements.

The electoral track record of the RLD underscores the effectiveness of its partnership with the BJP, particularly in Uttar Pradesh. The pinnacle of this collaboration was witnessed in 2002 when the RLD secured its highest seat tally in the UP Assembly elections by winning 14 out of 38 seats contested alongside the BJP under Rajnath Singh's leadership.

In the past decade, Western Uttar Pradesh has been instrumental in shaping the electoral outcomes for the BJP in the state. From the landmark 2014 Lok Sabha elections to subsequent state assembly elections in 2017 and 2022, and the 2019 general elections, the region has seen fluctuations in BJP's dominance amid opposition challenges.

Change in electoral arithmetic

The Lok Sabha elections will witness a pivotal change with the entry of RLD into the NDA fold. This move alters the electoral arithmetic significantly. Unlike the 2019 scenario, where the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) aligned with other opposition parties, the electoral landscape now sees BSP contesting independently, while the Samajwadi Party (SP) is part of the opposition coalition.

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In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, a coalition of SP, BSP, and RLD secured significant seats, challenging the BJP's stronghold. However, in the 2022 UP Assembly polls, despite SP and RLD alliance, the opposition fell short of its aspirations. The selection dilemmas in candidate nominations for key constituencies such as Rampur, Moradabad, and Meerut have further exacerbated the opposition's challenges, thereby inadvertently favouring the BJP.

Encompassing the Braj and Rohilkhand regions, the first two phases of polling on April 19 and 26 will decide the fate of 16 constituencies. Despite the confidence of the opposition alliance INDIA in securing a majority of Muslim votes, the presence of BSP poses a potential spoiler for their electoral prospects.

With a demographic composition of 72.29 percent Hindu and 26.21 percent Muslim populations, constituencies with significant minority electorate become focal points for intense electoral battles. The BJP's campaign strategy pivots on development, law and order, and initiatives like timely payment to sugarcane farmers. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath's tough administrator image and focus on infrastructure development further bolster the BJP's narrative.

The BJP's alliance with RLD, coupled with conferring the Bharat Ratna on the late Chaudhary Charan Singh, symbolises a strategic move to consolidate support in the region. Despite communal tensions, the BJP's emphasis on women's safety propelled its electoral success in previous polls.

In the backdrop of historical trends and present alignments, the upcoming Lok Sabha elections promise keen contests across constituencies, notably in Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Saharanpur, Meerut, Baghpat, and Mathura. Key figures like Union Minister Sanjeev Balyan and veteran actress Hema Malini emerge as prominent contenders.

While the BJP's top leadership actively engages in campaigning, focusing on issues like the construction of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, the absence of top opposition leaders from the scene remains conspicuous, setting the stage for an intriguing electoral battle in Western Uttar Pradesh.