Mayawati's last-minute shuffles, 30% tickets to Muslims raise eyebrows

Mayawati's active engagement with Muslim voters during rallies aims to capitalize on dissatisfaction with the Samajwadi Party post the 2022 UP assembly elections.

The recent reshuffling of candidates by Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader Mayawati has stirred debate and speculation, particularly with changes in Jaunpur and Basti constituencies, raising eyebrows among political analysts who suggest potential advantages for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Moreover, the BSP's allocation of nearly 30% of its tickets to Muslim candidates has prompted concerns about vote division which might help BJP.

In a surprising turn of events, the BSP replaced its candidate in Jaunpur, revoking the ticket of Srikala Reddy, wife of mafia don turned politician Dhananjay Singh, who had already filed nomination papers. The party instead nominated Shyam Singh Yadav, the incumbent MP from Jaunpur, who filed his nomination on the last day, leading to a triangular contest with the BJP and SP candidates.

Thakurs have traditionally held sway in Janupur elections, prompting the BJP to nominate Kripashankar Singh. Srikala Reddy's candidacy posed a potential threat to the BJP's prospects due to her influence among Thakurs, courtesy of her husband Dhananjay Singh. Now, with Shyam Singh Yadav entering the fray, his candidacy is likely to divide the Yadav vote bank, impacting the prospects of the SP candidate, Babu Singh Kushwaha, a former loyalist of Mayawati.

Similarly, in Basti, the BSP altered its candidate, nominating Luvkush Patel in place of Dayashankar Mishra. Patel, the son of the late former MLA Nandu Chaudhary, has familial ties with Ramprasad Chaudhary, the SP candidate for the Basti Lok Sabha seat.

Mishra's previous affiliation with the BJP could have posed a challenge for the party. However, his removal brings relief to the BJP, allowing it to breathe easier without the potential impact of his presence.

The BSP's strategic maneuvers extend beyond candidate changes, with a notable emphasis on Muslim representation in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh. Out of the 78 declared candidates, 22 hail from the Muslim community, marking a significant departure from previous electoral strategies.

BSP had fielded 20 candidates from upper caste, 17 Dalits and rest OBCs.

This shift contrasts with the BSP's approach in the 2019 general elections when it fielded only six Muslim candidates out of 38, it contested constituting a mere 15% of its total nominees. However, this time, the BSP aims to leverage the collective strength of Muslim and Dalit voters to challenge the BJP's dominance.

The BSP's recent emphasis on Muslim candidates echoes its past experimentation, notably in the 2017 UP assembly elections, where it fielded 99 Muslim candidates. However, this move inadvertently fragmented the Muslim vote bank, leading to a landslide victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which secured 313 out of 403 assembly seats.

Political analysts, including Kamal Jayant, note that Mayawati's ticket distribution strategy has historically influenced the division of Muslim votes, inadvertently benefiting the BJP. He points out that changes like replacing a Thakur candidate with Yadav in Jaunpur and replacing a Brahmin candidate with Patel in Basti could potentially tilt the caste equations in favor of the BJP.

However, Mayawati has defended her party's ticket distribution, citing the BSP's commitment to proportional representation, as encapsulated in the slogan "Jiski jitni hissedari, uski utni bhagidari." She emphasizes the synergy between Muslim and Dalit voters as a potent force capable of countering the BJP.

In the ongoing elections, BSP candidates from the Muslim community are contesting in constituencies with significant Muslim populations. Mayawati's active engagement with Muslim voters during rallies aims to capitalise on dissatisfaction with the Samajwadi Party post the 2022 UP assembly elections, presenting the BSP as a credible alternative.

As the electoral landscape evolves, the BSP's strategic recalibration underscores its bid to reshape political dynamics in Uttar Pradesh, setting the stage for a fiercely contested electoral battle.