Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha 2024: Why Pallavi Patel’s and Owaisi’s PDM may pose a serious threat to Samajwadi Party

Both Apna Dal (K) and AIMIM are making their Lok Sabha poll debuts in Uttar Pradesh.

In post-Mandal politics, parties have often resorted to the ‘social justice’ plank to make their public outreach and policies more appealing among the electorate. Uttar Pradesh, unlike other Hindi heartland states, has challenged the growing acceptability of the Hindutva politics. The core social justice parties – Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party with its ‘inclusive’ caste arithmetic has played a pivotal role in government formation or shaping the contours of state power in Uttar Pradesh.

Pallavi Patel’s Apna Dal (Kamerwadi) and Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM forging an alliance on the heels of the upcoming parliamentary polls is an effort in that direction. While announcing the tie-up, the formation had emphasized their collective intention to fight for the disadvantaged section of the population.

The new formation named PDM Nyay Morcha, in which PDM stands for Picchda, Dalit and Muslim is likely to pose a direct challenge to the SP’s PDA (Pichchde, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) pitch. The eventual electoral ramifications of this tie-up can only be known once the poll outcomes are declared. A recent meeting between Patel and Owaisi in Hyderabad laid the groundwork for this strategic partnership.

Apna Dal’s fallout with INDIA bloc

Apna Dal (Kamerawadi), which separated from the opposition INDIA bloc after its demand for Mirzapur, Phulpur and Kaushambi Lok Sabha seats of Uttar Pradesh was not met, on Sunday announced a new alliance with Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM and named it PDM Nyay Morcha and described it as a front to provide justice to the backward classes, Dalits and Muslims. Apna Dal (K) chief was categorical in stating that the new formation stands for Picchda, Dalit and Muslim—aimed to provide an alternative to people against the government and the "big people" of the opposition who are continuously ignoring public sentiments

AIMIM’s impressive show in local body polls

Disappointed after its dismal performance in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections in 2022, when it could not win a single seat and got just 0.49% of the total votes, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) received a shot in the arm in the urban local body elections in 2023.

Five candidates of the AIMIM were elected Nagar Palika Parishad or Nagar Panchayat chairpersons, 75 of its councillors won in municipal corporations, and in its most impressive performance, its mayoral candidate in Meerut came second after the BJP nominee, finishing ahead of the Samajwadi Party’s Seema Pradhan.

Why Asaduddin Owaisi claims to be the true representative of Muslims

Asaududdin Owaisi has often targeted the SP in his election speeches. Be it Maharashtra or Uttar Pradesh, where he is trying to establish a formidable base for his party, Owaisi has promised to be the true representative of the Muslim population and blamed their underrepresentation among the Muslims to parties that claim to represent them.

From the community’s perspective, parties that espouse the cause of secularism and social justice are the Congress, the BSP  and the SP. These parties have been working hard to get a major chunk of the Muslim votes. However, there is dissatisfaction in certain pockets with the mainstream parties and their efforts to represent the community.

Understanding UP’s caste calculus

Uttar Pradesh is roughly made up of 25-27% general castes (including 10% Brahmins and 7% Thakurs), 39%-40% OBCs (including 7-9% Yadavs and 4% Nishads), around 20% SCs and STs (including 10% Jatavs), and 16-19% Muslim population. There are no definite percentages known for each caste given that there has been no caste census.

There are five main voting groups in UP — Upper Castes, Muslims, non-Yadav OBCs, Yadavs and Jatavs. Governments in UP in the past have been formed with just 30% vote share by bagging votes of two full groups and bits from the non-Yadav OBCs — SP did so in 2012 with its Muslim-Yadav combination and BSP did it in 2007 with its Muslim-Jatav combination.

Why Akhilesh Yadav’s SP should be wary of PDM

Going purely by their performance in the previous assembly polls, the PDM seems to be a no contest with Samajwadi’s formidable caste arithmetic. However, In 2017, AIMIM secured 5% of the vote share across all the Assembly segments that make up the Sambhal Lok Sabha seat. In every other seat, the two parties had a negligible presence.

In 2022, the parties registered a notable vote share in the Assembly segments of just four Lok Sabha seats – the AIMIM’s 3.4% in Azamgarh, and Apna Dal (K)’s 5.5% in Mirzapur, 6.6% in Pratapgarh and 6.3% in Varanasi.