Battle for 2nd spot? Why Tamil Nadu may be at crossroads of political churn

File photo of PM Modi and Palaniswami

To piggyback on a stronger ally, and then strike out on one's own. This was seen as the BJP's strategy in Tamil Nadu. That ally was the AIADMK.

But the AIADMK grew wary of the national party calling the shots and broke off the alliance. Will this upset BJP's game plan?

The saffron party now has two breakaway factions of the AIADMK, a casteist party of the Most Backward Classes group of Vanniars, the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), and the Tamil Manila Congress (TMC) of GK Vasan. The AIADMK cannot boast of any major ally, but it is banking on its role as the major opposition party, the principal rival of the DMK.

Essentially, the DMK occupies the pole position in the state, and the efforts of other parties are to consolidate the anti-DMK vote banks. To that extent, the support bases of the AIADMK and the BJP can shift easily from one to the other, though the AIADMK has always had charismatic leaders to helm the party and the BJP could never rise above being a marginal player.

Dominated by two Dravidian parties, the DMK and the AIADMK since 1967, Tamil Nadu politics might at last be witnessing a churn with a determined push by the BJP to claim the status of the only viable alternative to the DMK. Since the demise of the former Chief Minister and AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa in 2016, the BJP has been eyeing a bigger role in the state polity. Taking advantage of the factionalism in the AIADMK, the BJP dictated terms to the regional ally, especially in dealing with internal dissenters and in stitching up alliances.

Though Jayalalithaa's AIADMK won the 2016 assembly election without any major alliance, after her death the BJP established a rapport with some senior leaders of the AIADMK. Key among them was former Chief Minister O Paneerselvam, who leaned on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the national BJP leadership to increase his clout within the AIADMK when there were differences with current AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami, who was the Chief Minister then. The BJP was happy to intervene.

The national party first got Palaniswami and Paneerselvam together and revolt against Jayalalithaa's aide VK Sashikala and her nephew TTV Dinakaran, a former Parliamentarian. Following a legal battle, Sashikala and Dinakaran were expelled from the party. Palaniswami and Paneerselvam then shared leadership in the state as chief minister and deputy chief minister and in the party as joint coordinator and coordinator. But the arrangement collapsed soon after the 2021 Assembly election.

The AIADMK forged an alliance with the BJP to fight the Lok Sabha polls in 2019 and the Assembly election in 2021. The alliance won only one seat in 2019 and lost the 2021 election to the DMK led alliance. Already there was dissension in the party about aligning with the BJP. After the two defeats, some party functionaries began blaming the alliance with the BJP as the cause of defeat. They accused the centre of 'stealing' state revenue and argued that the conflicting ideologies of the AIADMK and the BJP were an impediment to the continuation of the alliance. They felt the BJP was attempting to raid the key opposition position.

AIADMK cadres led by Palaniswamy revolted against the two-man leadership arrangement. Through general council resolutions Paneerselvam was ousted and subsequently expelled from the party. Palaniswami's party won the legal battles that ensued and he now is the unquestioned leader of the AIADMK.

Tamil Nadu BJP chief, K Annamalai, who took charge of the state unit soon after the state election and was openly critical of Dravidian leaders, including the DMK founder, Former Chief Minister CN Annadurai, in whose name the AIADMK was formed, and Jayalalithaa. A war of words followed between Annamalai and the AIADMK. The BJP refused to rein in Annamalai. An uncomfortable AIADMK chose to to come out of the NDA.

The AIADMK cadres burst crackers and said it was their "happiest moment". In February, there were attempts by BJP to reunite with the AIADMK. But, Palaniswami gave a clear "no" for an answer.

The AIADMK's major ally today is just the DMDK, which the BJP tried to woo following the death of its founder Vijayakanth.

Now, it is to be seen if the election in Tamil Nadu would be a three-cornered contest or if the anti-DMK votes would largely remain with the AIADMK. There is a slow political churn, even if the DMK remains the front runner against a divided opposition. The most interesting fight with long-term implications will be for the second place.