Naidu, Nitish, NDA ... back to coalition politics?

Chandrababu Naidu vs PM Modi

All eyes are now on Chandrababu Naidu (Telugu Desam Party) and Nitish Kumar (JD-U). With all their experience and expertise, neither NDA ally could have envisaged a scenario where they could be the kingmakers.

As leads become results in the 2024 general elections, and the BJP being very far from 400 paar - Naidu and Nitish form the lynchpin of the new government set to be sworn in. Will they, won’t they? The fallen king who has risen again and the perpetual turncoat are wily, seasoned negotiators.

Does it serve their purpose to lend support at this point? Or will the temptation of a prime ministerial post see them cross the great divide?

PM Narendra Modi dialled Chandrababu Naidu, whose party is set to win both the assembly and Lok Sabha elections.

Naidu has staged an impressive comeback after his decision to break away from the NDA and join the UPA ahead of the 2019 general elections proved costly.

Naidu steered his party as well as the NDA into a leading position in the assembly as well as Lok Sabha polls.

Naidu first became chief minister in 1995 and has held the position three times. His first two terms as CM were during the era of united Andhra Pradesh from 1995 to 2004. His third term came after the state was split, with Telangana being carved out of Andhra Pradesh 10 years ago.

Naidu was a key figure in the development of modern Hyderabad, transforming it into a major tech hub. He was known as the CEO-CM.

In 2014, Naidu became the first chief minister of the newly reduced state of Andhra Pradesh and served until 2019. He promoted Amaravati as the capital city, but his defeat left this project hanging fire. His successor, YSRCP leader Jagan Mohan Reddy, playing a very vindictive hand, derailed the progress of Amaravati.

Naidu's career hit a low point with his 2023 arrest in the Skill Development Corporation Scam case by the YSRCP government. He was arrested in a pre-dawn raid on September 9 and spent nearly two months jail. Naidu was granted interim bail on

October 31, which became permanent on November 20. This allowed him to prepare for the 2024 elections and rejoin the NDA alliance with TDP, BJP, and Janasena.

Naidu’s support for the NDA would be crucial as the number jugglery goes on. In 2019, the TDP, which was the incumbent party, managed to win only 23 seats while its allies Janasena won only one.

With the resurgent TDP set to establish its mark, it has been a body blow for CM Jagan Reddy of the ruling Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP) .

As part of the seat-sharing pact, the TDP contested 144 Assembly and 17 Lok Sabha seats while the BJP fielded candidates in six Lok Sabha and 10 Assembly constituencies. The Jana Sena Party contested two Lok Sabha and 21 Assembly seats.

Naidu's promise of good governance, development, and stability looks to have resonated with voters. His party's alliance with Jana Sena led by Pawan Kalyan and the BJP further strengthened his position. There was also a major tide of resentment after his arrest.

Bihar was a crucial Hindi heartland state for the BJP. And there the much-criticised CM Nitish Kumar, notorious for his flip-flops, justified his stand of aligning with the BJP.

Nitish is now being courted by the Congress and the BJP, with the latter offering him the NDA convenorship. Nitish, the nine-time chief minister of Bihar, is now set to enjoy the spotlight again.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the NDA swept Bihar, winning 39 out of the 40 seats. The BJP won 17 seats, JDU claimed 16, and LJP took home 6 seats. Congress managed to win just one seat, while the RJD, led by Tejashwi Yadav, failed to win any.

Nitish Kumar said his party would stay with the NDA. Despite Nitish Kumar switching alliances twice in the last five years, exit polls had shown that the NDA may sweep Bihar winning more than 30 out of a total 40 seats. In 2019, too, the NDA swept the state with 39 seats.

Nitish returned to the NDA fold barely five months ago even though he was instrumental, along with other opposition leaders like TMC leader Mamata Banerjee, in stitching up the INDIA bloc.

As of now, at the time of writing, trends show that the JD(U) is ahead of rivals in 14 out of 16 seats it contested. The BJP, which contested 17 seats, is leading in 11 while junior ally Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) is ahead in all the five in its kitty, including Hajipur.

Naidu and Nitish have shown that in Indian politics the kingmakers carry enormous clout. And that is why regional politics has grown in stature over the years.