Why political parties in Maharashtra can’t afford to take Jarange-Patil’s appeal lightly

Quota activist Manoj Jarange-Patil has appealed to the Maratha community to choose ‘independent’ candidates for the upcoming parliamentary polls

As both the political formations- National Democratic Alliance and the Maha Vikas Aghadi are in the final stages of the seat-sharing arrangement in Maharashtra for the upcoming general election, Quota activist Manoj Jarange-Patil’s appeal to the Maratha community to choose ‘independent’ candidates for the upcoming parliamentary polls serves as a timely reminder on the importance of Marathas in Maharashtra’s overall electoral calculus.

The two major political bloc preparing for a face-off in the all-important state of Maharashtra cannot afford to take Patil’s appeal lightly as the Maratha community can play a decisive role in as many as 17-18 Lok Sabha constituencies in the state.

Manoj Jarange-Patil’s clout among his core constituents was amply visible when he got the Maharashtra government to accept all his demands. He was demanding reservation in education and jobs for the community under the Other Backward Classes (OBC) category.

Jarange-Patil convened a state level meeting of Marathas on Sunday at Antarwali-Saraati village in Jalna district of Maharashtra.

Around 22 per cent of voters in the state belong to the Maratha community. The Maratha votes can play a decisive role in 18 Lok Sabha seats including eight seats of Marathwadas and six seats of Western Maharashtra.

Political significance of  Jarange Patil’s statement

The Marathas are a dominant and politically-influential community in Maharashtra, comparable to the Yadavs in Bihar and Patels in Gujarat.

The majority of Maharashtra’s chief ministers since 1960 have been from the Maratha community. Between 2014 and 2019, nearly half of the total 288 MLAs were Marathas.

Leaders such as Sharad Pawar, Arjun Khotkar from Shinde’s faction, Ashok Chavan of the Congress have all met Jarange-Patil during his agitation and convinced him to call off  the agitation. The community is also believed to play a decisive role in at least 18 lok sabha seats out of Maharashtra's total tally of 48 seats.

The Maratha community's demand for reservation has been a focal point of discussions between the community leaders and the state government.

Why Maharashtra presents a real challenge for parties

Maharashtra's changing political landscape in 2024 presents a complex challenge. With fluctuating vote shares, the NDA faces a steep uphill battle, moving from firm footing to uncertain terrain. The state's voting trends signal a looming challenge for those currently in power.

In the 2019 elections, 21 out of the 48 constituencies in Maharashtra had vote shares below the 50 per cent mark. The BJP and Shiv Sena each had eight constituencies in this category, while the INC-NCP alliance had three. Two additional seats went to other parties.

From 1999 to 2014, the Congress held sway over Maharashtra. The BJP's rise to power in 2014 marked a significant shift, with the party quickly consolidating its position in the state by the next election cycle.

Besides national issues, the agrarian crisis in the state, unemployment, especially in rural areas, and communal polarisation will also determine the outcome of the Lok Sabha results. The latter will also set the tone for the assembly elections to be held later this year.