Lok Sabha elections: What southern states mean for BJP's 400+ poll math

Even the fiercest BJP critic cannot deny that the party is heading into the Lok Sabha election as a strong favourite. This time, BJP and allies are hoping to scale mount 400 - a feat achieved only once in Indian politics when the Rajiv Gandhi-led Congress won 414 seats in the 1984 Lok Sabha elections. But winning almost 75% of the seats in any election is not possible without dominating the length and breadth of the country. Hence, the southern states assume immense significance for BJP's 2024 poll arithmetic.

PM Modi's whirlwind visits and mega road shows in the south reflect BJP's concerted effort to get a firmer foothold in the region. The BJP brass realizes that achieving a 400+ target is not easy unless the party shores up its numbers in the south, the only region where it doesn't dominate the political narrative.

So far, Karnataka is the only state where BJP has been able to expand its influence over the years. In Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala, it has not been able to break the hegemony of regional outfits or replace Congress as the principal challenger.

Why south matters

Altogether, the southern states account for 130 seats in the Lok Sabha. That is almost a fifth of the total strength of the house. For any party looking to secure upwards of two-thirds majority in the lower house, it is crucial to secure a heavy slice of the southern pie.

Moreover, BJP has already reached its peak in the states where it is strong, be it the Hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh or states like Maharashtra, Bihar and Gujarat. It has also established a strong presence in the northeast and is likely to consolidate its gains in West Bengal and Odisha. Thus, south India remains a key catchment area for the party.

BJP's tryst with south

In its first ever Lok Sabha elections in 1984, BJP won just two seats in the lower house. Interestingly, one of them came from the south with its candidate Chandupatla Janga Reddy securing Hanamkonda in Andhra Pradesh.

Over the years, BJP has managed to increase its seat and vote share in the south but the performance has not quite mirrored the party's absolute dominance in the northern states, especially since 2014.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP won 29 out of the 130 seats in the southern states with a combined vote share of 18%. Though it won the highest number of seats compared to other parties, its strike rate remained subpar at just 33%. Compared to that, it won 177 out of 225 seats in the Hindi heartland with a vote share of nearly 50% and an impressive strike rate of 89.4%. Moreover, 25 out of BJP's 29 seats in the south came from just Karnataka, indicating the party's struggles in the remaining states.

Prospects & battle plan

Cultural symbolism and Modi factor aside, BJP will have a state-specific approach to boost its prospects in the south.

The party is already a formidable political force in Karnataka where it has managed to improve its seat tally in both 2014 and 2019, irrespective of the result of the preceding state elections. In 2019, BJP won 25 out of the 28 seats in Karnataka despite the fact that Congress-JD(S) alliance was in power. This year, it is contesting in alliance with JD(S) and is hoping for a 2019 encore.

In Andhra Pradesh, BJP has formed an ambitious alliance with TDP and Jana Sena to counter the Jagan Reddy-led YSR Congress. In Telangana, it is looking to take advantage of a weakened BRS, which was ousted from power by Congress in the 2023 assembly polls. Both states present a big opportunity for BJP in 2024.

However, Tamil Nadu and Kerala remain a tall challenge.

In Tamil Nadu, BJP is contesting the elections in alliance with Amma Makkal Munnettra Kazagam (AMMK) and Ambum Ramadoss-led Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK). Its former ally AIDAMK, which is the regional counterweight to the ruling DMK, is contesting the polls alone. Hence, the BJP has shifted its focus to a few seats where it sees a strong prospect of winning. Coimbatore is one such seat, where the party has fielded its state chief Annamalai who is also the most prominent local face of the party.

In Kerala too, the strategy is similar. In the past, BJP roped in popular faces, including actors and bureaucrats, to woo the voters in the state. But that didn't help move the needle in favour of BJP. This time, BJP is focusing on a handful of seats (Thiruvananthapuram, Pathanamthitta, etc) where it may be able to make a mark. Since BJP has not won a single parliamentary seat in Kerala so far, even victories in a few constituencies will come as a vote of confidence and add up to the 400+ goal.