Bihar tangle: Nitish Kumar's exit plan sends INDIA bloc into tizzy

Amidst the political uncertainty in Bihar and speculations of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar considering a reunion with the BJP, leaders of the INDIA bloc are proactively trying to initiate a dialogue with him to avert potential harm.

The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), comprising 28 parties, has all its top leaders, spanning from Jammu and Kashmir to Uttar Pradesh, and from Maharashtra to Tamil Nadu, actively seeking a response from the Janata Dal (United) chief, according to sources.

Nitish Kumar, known for switching sides, has taken multiple U-turns in the past. In 2013, the Janata Dal (United) broke its alliance with the BJP and joined hands with the RJD and Congress.

Read: Nitish Kumar to return to NDA? A look at the JD(U) leader's rollercoaster ride with BJP

In 2017, the Bihar chief minister re-aligned with the BJP. This was followed by another switch in August 2022, when he severed ties with the BJP-led NDA and returned back to the grand alliance comprising of the RJD, Congress and the Left.

Nitish miffed?

But, with the latest events, political experts blame the Congress party for various factors, such as being slow in making a plan for elections, going slow with seat-sharing, and starting the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra.

“Kumar has been the flag-bearer of uniting opposition parties ahead of the Lok Sabha polls. His exit would certainly affect the INDIA bloc. It’s been more than ten days since reports of him joining the NDA surfaced, but no one from the Congress party, whether Mallikarjun Kharge or Sonia Gandhi, has reached out to him,” said political commentator Rasheed Kidwai.

Read more: Will he, won't he? Buzz on Nitish Kumar's return to BJP fold amid rift in INDIA bloc

The change in Nitish’s stance occurred after the INDIA alliance’s virtual meeting on January 13 during which left leader Sitaram Yechury proposed Nitish Kumar as the convenor of INDIA bloc and it received endorsement from Lalu Yadav and Sharad Pawar.

However, Rahul Gandhi intervened, indicating that a decision would need to be postponed as Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee had reservations.

Kidwai said that Nitish Kumar is now known as “Paltu Ram” for switching sides, and the Congress party could have easily eased the situation by having talks with him and Mamata Banerjee.

“This was the time when Rahul Gandhi should have been at the forefront in solving all these nitty-gritties, but he has embarked on a yatra which is suicidal. The Congress is seen as the leading force of the alliance, but it is away from the ground reality. The party is being run by advisors, not stakeholders,” Kidwai added.

Also read: 'Secularism, corruption, insult': Nitish's never-ending list of pretexts to alienate allies, remain CM

With talks circulating about Nitish Kumar possibly changing his political stance, the BJP is currently having meetings to figure out plans for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections and explore the idea of forming an alliance with him.

Sources said Kumar will have a meeting with all his legislators on Sunday and may subsequently stake claim to form the government in collation with the BJP in the state.

How numbers stack up

The Bihar Assembly has a total of 243 members and Lalu Prasad’s RJD is the single largest party with 79 MLAs, while JD(U) has 45 MLAs, BJP has 78, Congress 19, Left 12, ad 10 others comprise of independents or belong to smaller parties.

A political party needs 122 (half) of the total 243 seats to form government in Bihar. The Mahagathbandhan including JDU, RJD and Congress in Bihar has 159 MLAs in total.

“It takes two to tango. Without BJP’s agreement switching side is not possible. The saffron party is confident of coming to power, but it wants to decimate the opposition which had gathered to dislodge it at the Centre. They (BJP) will welcome Kumar and agree to his conditions as well as Bihar has 40 Lok Sabha seats,” said Kidwai.