Lok Sabha 2024: End of the road for the JDS?

The Lok Sabha elections have not brought with it the magical turnaround the JDS were hoping for.

The JDS went into the election with its future hanging in the balance. A leadership group revolving around one family and a shrinking voter base were significant causes for concern.

The 2023 Assembly Elections further diminished the JDS's electoral returns. In Mysore Karnataka, a JDS stronghold, the Congress made substantial inroads and outperformed the party. These were major red flags for the JDS leadership. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls buildup, the JDS entered into an alliance with the BJP. With the help of the coalition, the JDS hoped it could hold onto the party's core seats of Mandya and Hassan.

Overall, the JDS won two out of the three seats it contested. H.D. Kumaraswamy won the Mandya Lok Sabha seat with a reasonably comfortable margin. In Kolar, the JDS candidate Mallesh Babu defeated Congress’s K.V. Gowtham in a close contest.

The big blow came from the Hassan seat, where Deve Gowda’s grandson, Prajwal Revanna lost to the Congress. This defeat was a considerable setback as Hassan was the Gowda family's home base. Deve Gowda represented Hassan constituency on several occasions in the past. The party's inability to hold onto this seat raises serious questions regarding the Gowda family's political future. Besides the defeat in Hassan, the scandal embroiled Prajwal Revanna and his father, H.D. Revanna, is the biggest crisis the party has faced to date. The family's political legitimacy and internal unity will be tested by this crisis.

Additionally, the question of the JDS's shrinking footprint remains in its core stronghold. The JDS is not a pan-Karnataka party. Its electoral footprint is limited to the Old Mysore belt, where the Vokkaliga population is significantly large. Until recently, the JDS’s firm grip on the Vokkaliga vote was its only ticket to political relevance. The Congress has made significant inroads into the JDS's Vokkaliga base in the Old Mysore belt. In the 2023 elections, the Congress outperformed the JDS across Old Mysore. More concerningly, the BJP also saw a significant increase in Vokkaliga support. This could indicate that the BJP is slowly moving into the space the JDS has vacated.

The alliance with the BJP was finalized with the hope that the Vokkaliga votes would not move away to the Congress. The results have clearly shown that the BJP-JDS coalition has succeeded in taking away a lot of the Congress’s Vokkaliga votes. However, the question remains, to what extent does this benefit the JDS? In all likelihood, the vote transfer could benefit the BJP more, accelerating its growth in Old Mysore. The JDS, on the other hand, could be further marginalized, with the Congress and BJP emerging as the dominant players in the region.

Two critical issues hold the key to the JDS's long-term survival. The first and most immediate issue is to deal with the fallout of the Prajwal Revanna scandal. It would be in the party's best interest to take a firm stance against Prajwal Revanna. The decision to suspend him from the party came a little too late. The senior party leadership, including Deve Gowda and H.D. Kumaraswamy, must come out with a united voice and hold Prajwal accountable for his actions. They must also repair the family's credibility and rebuild the trust of their supporters.

Secondly, the party needs to rebrand its electoral image. Currently, the JDS is seen as a family-run party that draws its support from one particular caste group. The quicker they disassociate themselves from this image, the better it would be for the party's future. Attempts need to be made to expand the party's support base. Additionally, a new line of leadership outside the Gowda family will need to emerge over the next few years. Being a part of the NDA allows the JDS to work on this rebranding.

Joining the NDA cabinet and lobbying for a critical ministry linked to rural development or agriculture is a good starting point.

The Lok Sabha elections have not brought with it the magical turnaround the JDS were hoping for. If anything, the party has emerged further weakened with serious questions about its future. That said, it would be too early to write off the JDS. Despite the Congress and BJP's growth in Old Mysore, the JDS still holds a significant support base amongst Vokkaligas. Besides, Deve Gowda and H.D. Kumaraswamy are seasoned politicians with the experience to navigate this crisis. The real test for the JDS is the 2028 Assembly Elections. This gives them four years to work on the ground and re-establish the party and its leadership's credibility.