2024 Lok Sabha Election: Decoding BJP’s strategy in Karnataka

For the BJP, Karnataka is a critical battleground state.

With elections just over a month away, the campaign is gathering momentum in Karnataka. Prime Minister Modi flagged off the campaign with rallies in Kalaburgi and Shivamogga.

For the BJP, Karnataka is a critical battleground state. It is the only state in South India where the party has a significant presence. In 2019 the BJP won 25 out of the 28 seats in the state with an additional seat being won by an independent supported by them. If the party has hopes of reaching 370 seats, it cannot afford to drop any seats in Karnataka.

There are a few important challenges the BJP faces in the state. Firstly, the Congress’ victory in last year’s assembly election has energized the party’s cadres. The Karnataka Congress leadership, has managed to put up a united front, which is working in its favour. Secondly, the BJP’s state level leadership did not mobilize significant support in 2023. As a result, a section of the Lingayat vote, which is key to the BJP’s success shifted to the Congress. In 2023, the Dalit vote stood firmly behind the Congress, and this is another matter of alarm for the BJP. Thirdly, some of the BJP’s sitting MPs are facing anti-incumbency at the grassroots. Addressing these three challenges will be at the heart of the party’s Karnataka campaign.

In 2023, the BJP’s campaign was built around its central leadership. As the campaign was coming to an end and in a last minute attempt to woo the urban voter, Prime Minister Modi addressed back-to-back roadshows in Bengaluru city.

The centralized campaign was necessary to overcome the lack of public confidence in the BJP’s state government and local leadership. This time around, being a national election, the BJP is likely to attempt a similar strategy. The Prime Minister’s decision to launch the party’s Lok Sabha campaign from Kalaburgi sends an important signal.

Apart from an attack on Mr. Mallikarjun Kharge and his family (Kalaburagi is the home of Kharge), the Prime Minister launched a frontal assault on the Congress led state government, calling it corrupt and inept. Interestingly, Modi’s focus was on how his central government would keep a ‘close watch’ on Siddharamaiah and the Karnataka Congress leadership. Little was mentioned of BJP’s state level leadership. This suggests that the central leadership will be the focal point of this year’s campaign. The BJP’s main goal would be to make this a Modi centric campaign.

The loss of a section of the Lingayat vote and the failure to consolidate Dalit votes cost the BJP dearly in 2023. This time, the party has taken steps to address the issue.

Yeddyurappa’s retirement and his absence from the BJP’s campaign was a key factor in Lingayat’s moving away.  Former Chief Minister Bommai, himself a Lingayat, did not have the stature of Mr. Yeddyurappa. Now, with his son Vijayendra as the party’s state president and with the support of key Lingayat leaders, the BJP hopes that the Lingayat vote would once again consolidate behind them.

The party has also focused their attack on the Karnataka Congress’ most prominent Dalit leaders Mr. Mallikarjun Kharge and his son Priyank Kharge. The Prime Minister decision to start the campaign on Kharge’s home turf is a clear sign that they see Dalit votes as a critical factor.

When it comes to caste politics, one cannot ignore the alliance that the BJP has forged with the JD(S). The Deve Gowda-Kumaraswamy led party enjoys significant support amongst the Vokkaliga community in and around the Old Mysore region.

This is a region where the BJP has been relatively weak. If the alliance works and JD(S) Vokkaliga votes shift to the BJP, this could be a major breakthrough. It would help the BJP access a vote base which it has historically struggle to break into.

Then, there is the question of some sitting MPs facing anti-incumbency. The initial list of candidates is a clear indication that this issue is on the BJP’s mind. So far, out of the 25 seats the BJP won in 2019, 10 are going to see new candidates. 4 more candidates are likely to be dropped when the next round of candidates are announced.

Most prominent ones are Naleen Kumar Kateel being dropped in Dakshina Kannada and Pratap Simha being replaced in Mysore. Additionally, Union Minister Shobha Karandlaje was moved out of Udupi-Chikkamagalur. With fresh faces, the BJP hopes to offset the anti-incumbency trend against several term sitting MPs.

Finally, as the first list of candidates for Karnataka were announced, the divisions within the state BJP clearly emerged. In Bengaluru North, Sadananda Gowda appeared unhappy at being dropped and having to make way for a Union Minister.

More importantly,  in Shivamogga, former Deputy Chief Minister Eashwarappa has announced that he will be contesting as an independent, after his son was denied a ticket in the neighbouring Haveri seat. These differences suggest that unlike the BJP at the national level, the Karnataka state level unit is divided. With elections closing in, this is a matter of serious concern for the party and how the party addresses the same is crucial.

With the BJP aiming for 370 plus seats this time around, Karnataka is an important part of the mission. An encore of 2019’s performance is critical. The BJP’s approach will need to address key challenges. A centralized campaign built around the Prime Minister is an essential element.

While there are challenges with state level leaders, Modi and the central leadership still remain popular. Additionally, consolidating the Lingayat and Dalit vote and making headway in the Vokkaliga heartland of old Mysore will be an important part of the strategy.

The appointment of Yeddyruppa’s son as  Karnataka BJP president and the alliance with the JDS has been done keeping this in mind. Finally, the party’s initial candidate’s list has both provided opportunities and opened up new challenges.

While it could help the party address anti-incumbency against certain candidates, it has also led to internal divisions coming out in the open. How, the BJP deals with these internal convulsions is going to be critical and would be the party’s top priority.