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SNM Abdi

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Specialising in India’s foreign policy and domestic politics

India frets over Sheikh Hasina’s China visit, a litmus test for New Delhi-Dhaka ties

WORLD

India frets over Sheikh Hasina’s China visit, a litmus test for New Delhi-Dhaka ties

Although India was Sheikh Hasina’s first port of call after her re-election in January, the Bangladeshi Prime Minister is now headed for China where she is expected to take a call on enlisting Beijing’s help to develop the Teesta basin languishing because of India’s failure to formalize the water-sharing treaty hanging fire since 2011. Bangladesh-China’s agreement on Rohingya repatriation, Belt and Road Initiative and import of arms also concern us 

Bangladesh-India Relations: Teesta treaty is a bridge too far and even a reset can’t redeem it

WORLD

Bangladesh-India Relations: Teesta treaty is a bridge too far and even a reset can’t redeem it

Talks between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bangladeshi counterpart, Sheikh Hasina, over the sharing of the waters of trans-border rivers has revived the possibility of the signing of the Teesta River water-sharing treaty.

Communist resurgence in Nepal doesn’t mean end of the road for India in the Himalayan nation

POLITICS

Communist resurgence in Nepal doesn’t mean end of the road for India in the Himalayan nation

China toppled an India-friendly regime in Kathmandu by uniting Nepal’s top communist parties and smaller Left parties into a formidable alliance. The new government is determined to needle India at Beijing's behest by framing the unresolved territorial dispute as a key bilateral issue. But New Delhi should not lose its cool and must exercise strategic patience to retrieve the lost ground in its neighbourhood.

After Maldives, Bangladesh sees an ‘India Out’ campaign; why New Delhi must stop China from taking advantage

BUSINESS

After Maldives, Bangladesh sees an ‘India Out’ campaign; why New Delhi must stop China from taking advantage

A movement against Indian products is gathering steam in Bangladesh for allegedly helping Sheikh Hasina become the Prime Minister for a fourth consecutive term against the wishes of the people. But if the boycott intensifies instead of dissipating, China will be laughing all the way to the bank. The way forward for India is to stop playing favourites and engage with the opposition parties

Attacks on ED and NIA in Bengal seems to have TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee’s approval. But, why?

INDIA

Attacks on ED and NIA in Bengal seems to have TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee’s approval. But, why?

West Bengal is the only opposition-ruled state where the operation of central agencies like the Enforcement Directorate and National Investigation Agency is hobbled by physical resistance from locals. And behind the orchestrated obstruction is CM Mamata Banerjee’s philosophy of disruption and confrontation. Her current approach is influenced by her long history of taking on the men in uniform 

Lok Sabha Polls: Corruption allegations on TMC could shape election outcome

LOK-SABHA-ELECTION

Lok Sabha Polls: Corruption allegations on TMC could shape election outcome

With many Trinamool Congress ministers, MLAs and leaders behind bars, corruption has emerged as a big issue during the parliamentary polls in West Bengal. There is a fair chance of graft and pay-offs turning the tide in BJP’s favour, although TMC insists that its jailed leaders are innocent and are being unfairly targeted by enforcement agencies to help BJP outsmart the ruling party

India-Maldives Ties: New Delhi should heed pro-China Muizzu’s plea for financial aid but with riders

INDIA

India-Maldives Ties: New Delhi should heed pro-China Muizzu’s plea for financial aid but with riders

After compelling India to withdraw its troops within a time frame and entering into a strategic partnership with China, Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu has done a U-turn and declared that India remains the island-nation’s closest ally. There are strong grounds for India to respond favourably but we must lay down some conditions in our national interest

Lok Sabha Polls: Selecting Raju Bista as the BJP candidate from Darjeeling sends out a clear message

LOK-SABHA-ELECTION

Lok Sabha Polls: Selecting Raju Bista as the BJP candidate from Darjeeling sends out a clear message

The decision to deny Harsh Vardhan Shringla, chief coordinator of India’s G20 presidency, a BJP ticket to contest from the prestigious Darjeeling seat signals that winnability, and not status and connections, is the criterion for selecting candidates by the ruling party

India and Taliban: The strategic sense in doing business with the government in Afghanistan

WORLD

India and Taliban: The strategic sense in doing business with the government in Afghanistan

A team of technical experts that New Delhi recently flew into Herat to inspect the Salma dam that Indian painstakingly built is suggestive of India’s intent to constructively engage with Afghanistan to protect national interests

Bengal: Why Mamata Banerjee revived seat-sharing talks with Congress

POLITICS

Bengal: Why Mamata Banerjee revived seat-sharing talks with Congress

AAP sealing a pre-poll alliance with Congress while foregrounding the great risk of impending arrest that it posed to Arvind Kejriwal has put Trinamool Congress in the uncomfortable position of answering whether similar worries are repelling it from the Congress. Moreover, Congress has the potential to split the Muslim vote, which could end up hugely benefiting BJP

Bangladesh: New US and China plays pose fresh headache for India

WORLD

Bangladesh: New US and China plays pose fresh headache for India

India has more than enough clout in present-day Bangladesh to go it alone. So the US attempt to rebuild bridges with Sheikh Hasina could reduce her dependence on India. The US is evidently concerned about the strides that China is making in Bangladesh. Now is the time for India to play the aces up its sleeve and show both countries that is the resident power in the region

Maldives could be China’s revenge against India outsmarting it in Bhutan and Nepal

WORLD

Maldives could be China’s revenge against India outsmarting it in Bhutan and Nepal

One explanation for Muizzu’s ballistic streak since his return to Male after a five-day visit to Beijing could be a pro-India dispensation winning polls in Bhutan, which could frustrate Chinese designs on Doklam, and two Chinese-built international airports in Nepal slipping into the red following denial of flying rights over India

New Bangladesh Cabinet: Sheikh Hasina sends key pro-India voices packing

WORLD

New Bangladesh Cabinet: Sheikh Hasina sends key pro-India voices packing

She has dropped the likes of Abdul Momen and Abdur Razzaq who were identified as being too close to India. Though three Hindu cabinet ministers have been appointed, India faces the challenge of countering the growing influence of pro-China, pro-Pakistan, and Islamist leaders

Teesta Water Sharing: An Indian failure allows China to play knight in shining armour

BUSINESS

Teesta Water Sharing: An Indian failure allows China to play knight in shining armour

GoI’s failure to convince Mamata Banerjee to share Teesta waters equitably has allowed China to win Bangladeshi hearts by proposing to revive the river even without the due share of upper riparian water from West Bengal flowing in 

Mahua Moitra’s expulsion buries some key rivalries in Bengal, at least temporarily

POLITICS

Mahua Moitra’s expulsion buries some key rivalries in Bengal, at least temporarily

Despite Mamata’s lacerating taunts for the Hindi heartland defeat, Congress’s Gandhi family and its Bengal leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury backed Mahua. So did arch-rivals, CPM. Both Mamata and Abhishek Banerjee are also with her, ensuring the faction-ridden Trinamool closed ranks. Expect a repeat of the outsider-targeting-Bengal’s-daughter card that Mamata played so effectively against BJP in 2021

Myanmar Crisis: China’s balanced approach a lesson for India in diplomacy

WORLD

Myanmar Crisis: China’s balanced approach a lesson for India in diplomacy

In order to remain in the game, New Delhi needs to shed its unwavering commitment to the generals or at least balance it by opening direct channels of communication with the pro-democracy forces

Bengal: Trinamool Congress reels under widening schism between Mamata and Abhishek Banerjee loyalists

BUSINESS

Bengal: Trinamool Congress reels under widening schism between Mamata and Abhishek Banerjee loyalists

In what is looking like a repeat of the Samajwadi Party’s fissures when Akhilesh Yadav moved to take control of the party against the wishes of his father Mulayam Singh Yadav, loyalists of Abhishek Banerjee are growing impatient with the old guard led by Mamata Banerjee. But Mamata is no pushover unlike Mulayam in his last days 

Nepal protests for restoration of monarchy and reviving a Hindu state pit India against US

BUSINESS

Nepal protests for restoration of monarchy and reviving a Hindu state pit India against US

Amid the unlikely Centre-Left alliance between Prachanda and Sher Bahadur Deuba, which has helped India and the US edge out China, a new political twist is the rising clamour for restoration of monarchy and a Hindu state. But Deuba is caught between India and the US, and their contrasting positions on secularism

Why India can and should play honest broker in Bangladesh 

POLITICS

Why India can and should play honest broker in Bangladesh 

India must mediate before the situation goes out of hand and radical elements like jihadi outfits start filling the vacuum left by a failing state. An understanding between the ruling and opposition parties to allow smooth conduct of election is key to putting Bangladesh back on the rails

Why there’s no immediate threat to the floundering Rishi Sunak premiership despite Conservative disarray

BUSINESS

Why there’s no immediate threat to the floundering Rishi Sunak premiership despite Conservative disarray

The Conservative Party is lurching to near certain defeat in the next general elections, which are due before January 2025. Despite falling approval ratings, the spectre of defeat may just be helping Sunak cling to the Prime Ministership without challengers as no one wants the ignominy of helming the government at this late juncture

Bangladesh: With polls nearing, Sheikh Hasina walks the extra mile to please New Delhi and Kolkata

WORLD

Bangladesh: With polls nearing, Sheikh Hasina walks the extra mile to please New Delhi and Kolkata

Sheikh Hasina’s razor-sharp focus on keeping India’s BJP government happy, goading West Bengal’s Mamata Banerjee to change her stance on Teesta river water sharing, and bagging all the minority votes available for the taking in Bangladesh is evident as she reaches out with tactful signalling to each of them for an unprecedented fourth term in office

Why Mohamed Muizzu’s plan to end Indian military presence is dangerous for Maldives

WORLD

Why Mohamed Muizzu’s plan to end Indian military presence is dangerous for Maldives

Ever since the timely intervention to foil the 1988 coup, India has been an effective guarantor of Maldives’ security, which deters terrorists, pirates, and traffickers from attempting mischief. The resulting tranquillity bolsters Maldivian tourism. Indian forces are also the first responder when Maldives faces calamities

Why the India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor is a poor alternative to the Suez Canal

BUSINESS

Why the India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor is a poor alternative to the Suez Canal

The IMEEC has kicked up a lot of excitement given the possibility of a new trade route that can rival the Suez and the BRI. But the logistics industry is sceptical about whether it can offer cheaper and quicker cargo transportation

China’s stock rises in Maldives but India’s footprints are too deep to efface

BUSINESS

China’s stock rises in Maldives but India’s footprints are too deep to efface

Even if the outgoing pro-India president Solih loses, India can take heart at its close engagement with Maldives over the past five years that ensured considerable investments, which will benefit the island nation. India must play its cards right and engage with the frontrunner Mohammed Muizzu

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