Communist resurgence in Nepal doesn’t mean end of the road for India in the Himalayan nation

The need of the hour is “strategic patience” to tide over the new developments in Nepal which have cast a shadow on India’s prospects and hugely advantage China

A challenging time lies ahead for India in Nepal where the two biggest communist parties - whose distinguishing feature is their close ties with China’s political and military leadership – have just patched up differences and jointly formed the government, evicting the pro-India Nepali Congress from the power-sharing arrangement that we had brokered and put in place last year.

Predictably enough, the new regime in Kathmandu headed by Prime Minister Pushpa Kumar Dahal Prachanda, who leads the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Center), and propped up by KP Sharma Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal (United Marxist-Leninist), has raked up the unresolved territorial dispute with India and called for a review of the Friendship Treaty to exert pressure on New Delhi.

The two issues, which have great potential to stir up nationalist undercurrents in the smaller neighbour and dangerously inflame anti-India sentiments, enjoy top billing in the recently unveiled Common Minimum Programme of the Prachanda-Oli coalition. Although the CMP seeks retrieval of Susta, Limpiyadhura, Lipulek and Kalapani through diplomatic means sans deadlines and chest-thumping, it’s crystal clear that the new regime wants to please Beijing by needling us.

Its motive is more than evident considering that exactly a year ago the CMP of Prachanda’s Nepali Congress-backed government had sought the return of territories from “neighbouring countries”, thereby accusing both India and China of illegally occupying Nepali land. But the new CMP, drawn up after the expulsion of the Nepali Congress from the government, targets India and India alone; it has no direct or indirect reference to China as far as recovering the landlocked nation’s territories in concerned while painting India black.

We are witnessing how being provocative comes naturally to smaller countries, whether it is the Maldives or Nepal. But it doesn’t behove a military and economic regional superpower like India to be retributive or intimidating, especially in its immediate neighbourhood.

At this juncture, India’s Nepal policy should be shaped by two cautionary proverbs: “look before you leap” and “discretion is the better part of valour”. The need of the hour is “strategic patience” to tide over the new developments in Nepal which have cast a shadow on India’s prospects and hugely advantage China. As things stand today, any overreaction by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government will only strengthen Beijing’s position and weaken ours. Hence we should watch our steps lest we stumble.

We should be calm and restrained although the spike in China’s influence over Nepal at India’s expense has coincided with another neighbour – Maldives – distancing itself from us and aligning itself with China strategically, economically and politically. But the political shakeups in two regional capitals, Kathmandu and Male, are no reason to despair, worry and lose sleep over. We are big enough to take these adverse developments in our stride and bounce right back.

I think that the regime change in Kathmandu is a setback for both New Delhi and Washington. It is now imperative for the United States and India to pool their diplomatic and other capabilities in the strategically located Himalayan where the great game is being played for decades. The rub lies in the fact that right under New Delhi’s nose, Beijing succeeded in reuniting the CPN (MC) and CPN (UML) which had fallen out, and pulling in smaller Leftist parties to forge a broad communist alliance to bring down the pro-India coalition.

However, the most important lesson to be learnt is that China would not have succeeded in forging an all-Left front to topple the India-friendly government if New Delhi’s diplomatic and security establishments had not taken the cue from the ruling party’s Hindu first ideology and used the Nepali Congress to reopen a debate on secularism with the objective of somehow reviving the Hindu monarchy in Nepal. India’s covert move not only outraged Prachanda but became a rallying point for communists of all hues to sink their differences and close ranks under China’s supervision to ensure that Nepal remains a secular republic.

The good news is that we can quietly make life very difficult for China in Nepal if we play our cards well. For instance, the new airports built in Lumbini and Pokhara by Chinese companies will be forever in the red if India denies overflying rights to international carriers. Neither the Gautam Buddha International Airport in Lumbini nor the Pokhara International Airport can ever become commercially viable unless New Delhi allows foreign airlines to fly over India to land there. India’s capitalisation of its airspace has already resulted in a huge loss of face for China. Our policy of thwarting Beijing’s grand plans to consolidate its position in Nepal through the infrastructure route will pay good dividends.