Bengal: Why Mamata Banerjee revived seat-sharing talks with Congress

Besides messaging and optics, there is a compelling reason for Mamata to start talking again to the Congress Party.

After slamming the door hard in the Congress Party’s face, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress has returned to the negotiating table to finalise a seat-sharing arrangement with the Grand Old Party in West Bengal, and importantly enough, in a few other states as well.

Didi’s change of heart stems from a number of reasons linked to the national political scenario ahead of the announcement of dates for the general elections in mid-March. But the about-turn is, in many senses, a climb-down for the otherwise irrepressible Trinamool Congress which simply loves to punch above its weight and has acquired quite a reputation as a shrewd bargainer.

The resumption of talks is, however, of great national importance before Lok Sabha polls as the Congress Party and the Trinamool Congress are the largest and second largest opposition party in the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance bloc gearing up to take on the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance.

Top leaders of the two parties, including the Congress Party’s Jairam Ramesh, have confirmed that talks have restarted and the doors for an alliance have reopened.

The AAP Effect

A key reason for Mamata suddenly reopening talks with Rahul Gandhi’s party is Aam Aadmi Party leader and Delhi minister Atishi’s assertion at a press conference last week that Arvind Kejriwal will be arrested by the Central Bureau of Investigation or Enforcement Directorate this week unless AAP parts ways with the Congress Party and walks out of the Congress Party-led INDIA bloc to boost the NDA’s poll prospects.

AAP is allegedly taking the heat after clinching a 4:3 seat sharing formula in its favour with the Congress Party for seven Delhi Lok Sabha seats and sealing seat sharing deals in Gujarat, Haryana, Goa and Chandigarh, while mutually deciding to go solo in Punjab, which has no doubt put the wind in INDIA’s sails.

If the Trinamool Congress continued to disassociate itself from the Congress Party and refused to revive seat-sharing talks even after Atishi’s revelation that Kejriwal had received threats from the powers that be to choose between going to prison and walking out on the Congress Party, it would have been presumed in political circles that the Trinamool Congress had succumbed to exactly the same threats and dumped the Congress Party in order to shield Abhishek Banerjee, Mamata’s nephew and heir-apparent, who is facing a string of CBI and ED cases but hasn’t been arrested so far.

History shows that Mamata usually goes to great lengths to send across an unequivocal message that she is not afraid of the BJP government’s agencies hounding opposition leaders. That’s why she put seat sharing talks with the Congress Party back on track no sooner Atishi went public with Kejriwal’s imminent arrest for supping with the Congress and strengthening INDIA.

Whether Kejriwal is arrested or not, Mamata promptly grabbed the opportunity to signal that just like the AAP, the Trinamool Congress too cannot be intimidated into surrendering – and that she hasn’t cut a deal with the BJP to save Abhishek from CBI or ED.

The Muslim Vote

Besides messaging and optics, there is another compelling reason for Mamata to start talking again to the Congress Party. Mamata can’t risk a split in the roughly 27 percent Muslim vote in West Bengal between the Trinamool Congress and Congress-Left alliance. The importance of her Muslim vote bank can’t be overemphasized.

If the minority vote – which has anchored Mamata’s serial election triumphs since 2011 -- gets divided between the two secular camps, the BJP will be the net gainer and the Trinamool Congress the net loser. Samajwadi Party has also come to the same conclusion vis-a-vis Congress and BJP in Uttar Pradesh.

Mamata stands to gain immensely from conceding 3-5 Lok Sabha seats out of 42 to the Congress Party in order to ensure that the Trinamool Congress bags the entire Muslim vote in the remaining seats to keep the BJP at bay and retain its electoral dominance and political supremacy. She would therefore prefer a straight fight with the BJP hand in hand with the Congress Party instead of triangular contests splitting the crucial Muslim vote.

Muslims had voted overwhelmingly for the Trinamool Congress in the 2021 assembly elections rebuffing the Congress Party-Left combine. But a lot of water has flown down the Hooghly River since then. On the one hand, there is disenchantment among Muslims over state government policies and delivery systems. And, on the other, there is evidence of a rise in the Congress Party’s popularity among Muslims across India. Even Trinamool Congress leaders concede that the Congress Party’s appeal among West Bengal Muslims has grown. Mamata will obviously factor in these ground realities.

National Party Status

There is also the larger question of the Trinamool Congress’s goal of regaining its lost national party status. It was recognised as a national party in 2016 but was relegated to a state party last April after disastrous showings in Goa and Tripura. Hence it needs to field candidates outside West Bengal.

It is therefore eager to contest from Lok Sabha seats in Meghalaya and Assam, and is keen on entering into an alliance with the Congress Party to win those seats. At least three parliamentary constituencies outside West Bengal figure in the stalled Congress Party-Trinamool Congress seat sharing talks and are now back on the table.

It appears at times there is a competition underway between the two parties to insult and humiliate one another and their leaders. But the mudslinging will stop as both Mamata and Abhishek are in favour of burying all differences with the Congress Party at the national and state level.

The stage is now set for a breakthrough when Mamata sits across the table with Sonia Gandhi, who still has the last word in the Congress Party and is held in very high esteem by Mamata.

SNM Abdi is an independent journalist specialising in India’s foreign policy and domestic politics. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.