India-Maldives Ties: New Delhi should heed pro-China Muizzu’s plea for financial aid but with riders

While the Modi government must no doubt respond positively and favourably to Muizzu’s overtures but it’s high time New Delhi draws some red lines.

At long last, there is a silver lining in the dark clouds looming over India-Maldives relations since President Mohamed Muizzu was propelled to power in the island nation by his highly provocative “India Out” election campaign. While pro-China Muizzu’s conciliatory remarks is no doubt music to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government’s ears, New Delhi should make full use of this golden opportunity to deliver a few stern messages to Male in our national interests without wasting any time.

Recently, Muizzu -- who has so far been methodically courting Beijing to emerge as China’s foremost ally in our neighbourhood -- suddenly and uncharacteristically announced that India remains Maldives’ “closest ally”, sought debt relief and lavished praise on New Delhi as a generous aid and developmental partner. He specifically said that India has implemented the “greatest number” of projects in the island-nation – and declared that he wouldn’t halt any ongoing projects, allaying fears in some quarters about his agenda of embarrassing India to please China.

The pro-China president even disclosed that he is currently engaged “in talks with the Indian government to explore options to repay the loans [amounting to $400.9 million] to the best of Maldives’ economic capabilities”, and openly admitted “conveying his appreciation to the Indian government for its contributions”.

Muizzu’s Shocking About-face

All in all, it was a mind-blowing somersault by Muizzu who has of late not desisted from calling India a bully and strategically aligning himself with President Xi Jinping’s regime in multiple ways to the great discomfiture of India’s foreign policy and security establishments headed by External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. Tiny Maldives’ rants made India -- the resident power in the Indian Ocean Region with the world’s fourth-largest army -- squirm but it wisely chose discretion over muscle-flexing to cope with a series of grave provocations.

So much so that when Muizzu unilaterally announced a March 15 deadline to start withdrawing military personnel operating two India-gifted Dhruva helicopters and a Dornier aircraft, India pulled back the first batch of defence forces well before the deadline to demonstrate its respect and goodwill towards south Asia’s smallest democracy and is committed to removing all the 88 troops by May 10 to fully honour Muizzu’s unrelenting demand.

Muizzu’s plea for debt relief and economic and developmental assistance is of a piece with this writer’s advice tendered in “China’s stock rises in Maldives but India’s footprints are too deep to efface” dated September 26, 2023, when the regime of Ibrahim Mohamed Solih who had wholeheartedly pursued an “India First” foreign policy from 2018 embracing New Delhi and shunning Beijing, was on its last legs and Muizzu, who had vowed to wipe out India’s military, political and economic presence in the archipelago during his blistering election campaign, was on the cusp of power.

I had written back then that India had no reasons to panic or despair as it had made big investments, especially in infrastructure, to fall back on. My advice was to tend to big and small projects India had launched when the going was good, and keep allocating funds generously for resources-hungry Maldives. I had specifically said that the sheer size of India’s loans and financing, particularly infrastructure financing, should keep India’s morale high when Solih is gone. And that India’s chequebook diplomacy will keep paying good dividends if India treads carefully in the post-Solih period and doesn’t pick up unnecessary fights.

India Must Help, But Also Be Cautious

While the Modi government must no doubt respond positively and favourably to Muizzu’s overtures, especially his passionate plea for debt relief through loan restructuring, as it would help Maldives balance its relations with India and China, it’s high time New Delhi draws some red lines and warn Male that violating them would cost it dearly.

Firstly, the five or six Turkey-made Bayraktar-TB2 drones that Maldives has just purchased for a whopping $37 million, ostensibly to meet its own defence requirements and to monitor its territorial waters and vast Exclusive Economic Zone, can easily map India’s defence assets in Minicoy and possibly in Kochi (Southern Naval Command and Shipyard) and Thiruvananthapuram (Southern Air Command), and even installations in Tamil Nadu. Similarly, Maldivian drones can target airstrips in Agalega Island developed jointly by Mauritius and India, and six other projects under Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) maritime initiative.

Under no circumstances should Male place its newly acquired capabilities at Beijing’s or Islamabad’s disposal. Maldives should be categorically told that there will be hell to pay if China or Pakistan are given access to drone footage.

Secondly, Male should learn to mind its language. Maldives should be respectful while referring to India and its leaders, particularly Modi, directly or indirectly. There must be no repetition of the outrageous anti-India and anti-Modi remarks earlier this year. If Maldives meets these two conditions, the Modi government should unhesitantly and generously loosen its purse strings to come to Muizzu’s aid. If Maldives wants to live with us with honour, it should not dishonour us.

SNM Abdi is an independent journalist specialising in India’s foreign policy and domestic politics. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.