ASSEMBLY-ELECTION
Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir Elections: Crucial test for BJP’s strength
The Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir elections, scheduled for September/October 2024, will be pivotal for the BJP. They will test the party's strength and influence, affecting future alliances, especially in Maharashtra. BJP faces challenges from the INDIA alliance and declining voter support, particularly in Haryana
LOK-SABHA-ELECTION
Lok Sabha Elections: How do we predict the exit poll numbers?
Are the exit poll numbers reliable? Can an election be called without looking at the details of each and every poll separately? Here are some answers to the most frequently asked questions
LOK-SABHA-ELECTION
Lok Sabha Elections: What's at stake for BJP, Congress in 5th phase of polling
Union Ministers Rajnath Singh, Smriti Irani and Piyush Goyal will battle it out from Lucknow, Amethi and Mumbai North, respectively. Rahul Gandhi, too, is in the fray from Rae Bareli. Here are details of some interesting contests in store from this phase
LOK-SABHA-ELECTION
BJP dominates battle of narratives as 88 seats vote in phase 2 of Lok Sabha polls
In the second phase of voting, the BJP is defending its 52 Lok Sabha seats won during the 2019 Lok Sabha election.
ELECTION
Lok Sabha elections: What to watch out for in first phase of polling?
The first phase is going to witness an interesting contest between the two main alliances, the BJP-led NDA and the Congress-led INDIA alliance. Who is in the poll fray and what do the past showing reflect? Read on
INDIA
Lok Sabha Polls: BJP’s Sankalp Patra - full of promises, but will it gain voters' trust?
BJP's Sankalp Patra has managed to send out a message to different sections of society; for women, young and elderly, farmers, Adivasi and the middle class, making the party’s concern for the common man very clear
LOK-SABHA-ELECTION
Lok Sabha Polls: Will Kejriwal’s arrest create sympathy for AAP or dent party’s image?
Arvind Kejriwal's arrest on corruption allegations has dented AAP's image and if he is not released before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections it could cause further damage
LOK-SABHA-ELECTION
Lok Sabha Polls: BJP-led NDA looks for new partners, can it achieve the target of 400 paar?
It seems BJP’s search for new alliance partners before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections is mainly to establish an absolute dominance in Indian politics
BUSINESS
Can BJP expand its support base south of the Vindhyas in 2024?
While Karnataka reaped a good bounty for BJP in 2019, BJP is this time going the extra mile to do better in Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana
INDIA
Bihar: The Karpoori Thakur legacy and the BJP-JD(U) battle for the Lower OBC vote
Even when the JD(U)-RJD alliance swept the 2015 assembly polls, BJP cornered maximum lower OBC votes. Karpoori Thakur’s formulation of separate quotas for most backward groups endeared him to Lower OBCs. The JD(U)-RJD alliance is looking to wean away the Lower OBCs from BJP, while BJP aims to make further inroads into the OBC vote. The clashing imperatives make the Karpoori legacy one worth fighting for
POLITICS
Ram Mandir: How much electoral gain can BJP expect
CSDS surveys noted increasing religiosity among Hindus, correlation between this increasing religiosity and voting for BJP, and this correlation becoming progressively stronger in the 2014 and 2019. These big numbers came much before the present day euphoria around Ram Mandir, which suggests that this will be the biggest votecatcher for BJP in 2024
BUSINESS
Women’s Reservation Bill: Why almost every party is supporting the government’s legislation despite misgivings
BJP is poised to benefit in 2024 for bringing the law and also in 2029 when it is implemented. Opposition parties, even while supporting the bill, have raised the quota within quota for OBCs. Those who opposed the 2010 version are now supporting women’s reservation because they recognise that rising women voter turnout and the discourse on gender parity cannot be reversed
BUSINESS
PM Modi’s exclusive interview to Moneycontrol: What message does it carry?
PM Modi has addressed a diverse audience effortlessly while foregrounding the big strides India has taken under his leadership and the painstaking efforts during India’s G20 Presidency to make a positive difference for people all over the world. With elections on the anvil, his answers also added up to perfect political messaging
BUSINESS
Why the OBC card matters in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls
BJP’s narrative that numerically larger non-dominant OBCs are being taken for a ride has been effective. For 2024, the Opposition bet on caste census and BJP’s on Vishwakarma Yojana with its implicit non-dominant OBC focus presage a spirited battle to corner the OBC vote Sanjay Kumar
POLITICS
NDA and INDIA: One stronger in Lok Sabha, the other in assemblies
Who is ahead at the moment? The only numbers giving a sense of present strengths are the vote shares and seat counts of individual parties of the alliance in the Lok Sabha and legislative assemblies. In Lok Sabha it is BJP by a distance, while the tables turn in assemblies. One big question lingers: Is there a swinging voter in national elections?
BUSINESS
Bengal Panchayat Polls: TMC’s big win no indication of its 2024 prospects
Voters are making clear distinctions between panchayat, assembly and Lok Sabha polls. The state’s ruling party has an advantage in panchayats. In 2014 and 2019, BJP did better in Lok Sabha polls in Bengal than the panchayat elections which preceded and the assembly polls which followed. So the battle for 2024 has just begun and is far from over
BUSINESS
Despite Patna start, seat sharing and Index Of Opposition Unity will trouble the incipient coalition
Deciding the basis for seat sharing – previous Lok Sabha or assembly poll performance – isn’t easy. Each party would prefer the seat sharing benchmark that suits it. Similarly, Index of Opposition Unity will be dented if parties like BSP are excluded from the alliance or if there are friendly fights
ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS
Rajasthan: Will it be a change of government or a change of tradition?
Rajasthan’s history of voting out the incumbent government weighs against Congress, which is betting big on welfare schemes to keep the poorer sections happy. BJP, stung in Karnataka, appears to be leaning towards ex-CM Vasundhara Raje to lead the party campaign
POLITICS
Bihar: BJP focuses on non-Yadav-Kurmi-Muslim voters to blunt the Mahagathbandan’s 2024 plans
A repeat of the RJD-JDU-Congress’s 2015 election victory in 2024 is BJP's big fear in Bihar. But it is a Lok Sabha election and the Modi factor matters for voters. Moreover, BJP is assiduously cultivating caste groups distinct from its rival's social coalition for a reverse polarisation, similar to what stumped SP-BSP in UP in 2019
ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS
Karnataka Elections: Some questions about the exit poll process
Karnataka Elections 2023: Most exit pollsters who wagered their numbers yesterday did not share vote share estimates on which they based their calculation or their sampling methodology and other details. This lack of transparency in exit polls makes the calculation of seat numbers a dubious proposition
ASSEMBLY-ELECTIONS
Karnataka Elections: It’s 'national versus local' as BJP and Congress play to their respective strengths
Karnataka Elections 2023: BJP believes its success in defending incumbent governments suggest the mood of India’s voters favour it, and hence the “national” feel to BJP’s campaign. Congress is pinning its hopes on Karnataka’s track record of booting out incumbents and therefore projecting local issues and leadership
BUSINESS
Opposition Unity: Zero chemistry between opposition leaders defeats all the non-BJP vote share calculations
Unless opposition parties are able to come together by speaking in one voice and representing positive ideas, they won’t make headway with voters. Further, only a high degree of dissatisfaction with the ruling government works in favour of opposition unity, which doesn’t appear to be the case now
POLITICS
How women voters became front and centre of the electoral outreach by political parties
Take any recent election manifesto and notice how the promises made to women voters are the most eye-catching. The reason for this is two big transformations in Indian elections over the last decade: Women voters outperforming males in turnout and more women taking independent voting decisions
BUSINESS
Old Pension Scheme not a gamechanger for 2023 assembly polls or 2024 Lok Sabha elections
The Himachal Pradesh electoral verdict appears to have created a buzz in political circles about the Old Pension Scheme. If Congress or any party thinks it has found its silver bullet in OPS it is mistaken.
