Opposition Unity: Zero chemistry between opposition leaders defeats all the non-BJP vote share calculations

If all non-BJP parties come together they may not be able to present something positive to the voters. (Image source: PTI)

The Lok Sabha elections are still twelve months away. Before then, assembly polls will be held in six states in 2023, with Karnataka voting in a couple of weeks. Though these elections will determine which party will form the government in each state, the biggest issue of discussion is what might happen in the 2024 Lok Sabha election?

It is generally agreed that if all parties contest elections separately, the BJP is sure to win in 2024. The BJP can only be challenged in 2024 by a united opposition. But the big issue is that with very high ambitions of individual leaders, their political rivalries, and the state-level political compulsions, can opposition parties come together to take on Narendra Modi?

Scaling BJP’s 37% Peak

A question also being discussed is even if all opposition parties somehow manage to come together for their fight against Narendra Modi, can BJP be defeated in 2024? Can a united opposition unite the anti-Modi votes at the national level as there are always questions about vote transfer ability? For example, will Samajwadi Party voters be willing to shift their votes for the candidate put up by BSP or Congress or RLD in case all these parties decide to put up a common candidate against BJP in 2024 in UP?

Given the present support base of BJP, evident from its 2019 Lok Sabha vote share of 37 percent, and subsequent victories in various state assembly elections after that, the only way the opposition can upstage BJP in 2024 is to unite and prevent the division of anti-BJP votes.

An analysis based on the vote share of different parties polled during the 2019 Lok Sabha suggests that if all non-BJP parties come together in their fight against the BJP, the united opposition could possibly win 300-305 seats and BJP’s tally of seats may get reduced to around 235-240. This is based on the assumption that all political parties poll more or less the same vote share as they polled in 2019.

Let’s look at another assumption: If all non-BJP parties come together and BJP’s vote share declines by 1 percent compared to its 37 percent vote share in 2019, the BJP’s tally of seat may be about 225-230 and the number of seats which united opposition could possibly win may be in the range of 310-325.

2+2 Not Always 4

But can there be an absolute transfer of votes from one party to another if all opposition parties come together? In mathematics, two plus two is always four, but in politics coming together of two parties does not necessarily mean complete transfer of votes of voters of one party to another. There are degrees of variations in transfer of votes.

If there is a higher degree of dissatisfaction against the government against which all opposition parties have united, the degree of transfer of votes is much higher and vice versa. But if there are no serious issues against the ruling party, but still if all opposition parties come together to unite against the ruling party, there are serious question marks on the degree of transfer of votes of voters of one party to another.

Further, it is important to note the event leading to building the opposition unity. A spontaneous opposition unity results in greater transfer of votes, but if opposition unity has been achieved after a lot of hurdles, ifs and buts, and lots of tu-tu mein-mein, the degree of transfer of votes is likely to be far less as parties will be suspicious about each other.

The current mood of Indian voters suggests there is some dissatisfaction against the ruling central government, but not a massive unrest against the ruling BJP or Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In such a situation, the degree of transfer of votes is likely to be modest. I don’t expect the transfer of votes to the extent of two plus two becoming four.

Chemistry Matters

What might come in the way of smooth transfer of votes of one party to another is the level of trust of leaders, for other parties. The ambitions of leaders of regional parties is sky high, and many of them don’t trust each other. Given this situation, the transfer of votes may not be at desired levels.

One should also not forget that even if all non BJP parties come together in their fight against the BJP, they may not be able to present something positive to the voters. Mere coming together of all non-BJP parties as a sign of protest against the BJP may not be very fruitful, and may not result in optimum transfer of votes which would be essential in order to challenge the BJP in 2024.

But the first question is can all non-BJP parties come together? There is a big IF about this. Given the animosities between leaders of various regional parties, coming together of all opposition parties seems difficult. The success and failure of the Congress, both, might come in the way of forming an alliance.

Success would result in Congress making greater demands which many regional parties may not be willing to concede and if Congress fails at winning the coming round of assembly elections, stronger regional parties would try to distance themselves from the GOP. Whichever way one visualises it, the coming together of opposition parties isn’t going to be easy for the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

Sanjay Kumar is a Professor at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). He is also a Political Analyst. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.