Ram Mandir: How much electoral gain can BJP expect

Amongst Hindus who are more religious, 53 percent voted for the BJP while only 10 percent voted for the Congress.

I firmly believe the BJP would electorally gain from the consecration ceremony being held at Ram Temple at Ayodhya on January 22. I would like to offer two reasons for that.

First, the evidence from past CSDS surveys indicate that BJP gets more votes amongst more religious Hindu voters compared to those Hindus, who are less religious. The inauguration of Ram temple and the euphoria around that is only going to increase the religious feeling amongst the Hindus.

Second, the way BJP and Sangh Parivar have planned the event – both before and after January 22 – would eventually result in this turning out to be the party’s biggest voter’s outreach programme for the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

Let’s first look at the evidence of religious engagement of Hindus and their voting patterns. The evidence collected over a period of time by Lokniti-CSDS indicates a clear trend of more religious Hindus or those Hindus who are engaged more in religious activities voting more for the BJP.

What CSDS Surveys Found

Let’s look at findings from the 2009 Lok Sabha election survey among Hindus. Among those who visited temples regularly, 28 percent voted for the BJP which increased to 45 percent in 2014 and to 51 percent during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. On the contrary, amongst those Hindus who visited temple rarely or infrequently only 39 percent voted for the BJP.

Similarly, among those Hindus who pray regularly, 49 percent voted for the BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha elections while amongst those Hindus who pray occasionally 35 percent voted for the BJP. Even during the 2014 Lok Sabha election, among those who pray regularly, 41 percent voted for the BJP while only 27 percent of their counterparts who pray occasionally voted for the BJP. There is hardly any guess if inauguration of Ram Temple in Ayodhya would mean increased visit to the Ram temple or would mean a decline in the temple visit.

There are various other religious activities like giving donations, keeping fasts, participating in bhajans, etc. in which Hindus generally participate in large numbers. Considering participation in all these religious activities, Hindus could be divided into “more religious” and “less religious”.

Amongst Hindus who are more religious, 53 percent voted for the BJP while only 10 percent voted for the Congress. On the contrary, amongst those Hindus who are very less religious 37 percent voted for the BJP while 18 percent voted for the Congress during the 2019 Lok Sabha election.

This data indicates the following trends:

* A clear trend of increasing levels of religiosity amongst the Hindus,

* A strong correlation between increasing religiosity and increasing support for the BJP

* This correlation became steadily stronger during the decade from 2009 to 2019.

If these big numbers have been the trend in the past when the discussion about Ram temple was alive and kicking, but not as euphoric as it is now. I can say with confidence that not only the Ram Temple would be the biggest issue for the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the party would also stand to gain electorally from this.

BJP’s Grassroots Mobilisation

It is important to note that BJP is not leaving any stone unturned and has launched a massive outreach programme for celebration of the consecration ceremony which will only help it in mobilising support for the LS polls. The BJP has planned a fortnight-long calendar to celebrate and campaign on the Ram Temple issue. On January 22, the day PM Modi would inaugurate the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, the BJP workers would have to see that every household light up five diyas – called “Ram Jyotis” – in the evening to celebrate the event like a Diwali. The BJP is planning Diwali-like festivities across the country.

There are plans laid down for the next two months after the inauguration of Ram Mandir. The 60-day programme to take pilgrims to Ayodhya could result in the arrival of some 50,000 people daily which should roughly translate into 30 lakh people having undertaken the journey by the end of this period.

Also read | Ram Mandir consecration: Preparations underway to welcome 2 crore visitors in Ayodhya in next 3 months

BJP workers have been asked to help devotees with information about how to travel to Ayodhya after January 22. They will set up help desks at the booth level; connect devotees to the party workers in Ayodhya in case of an emergency and assist wherever possible. BJP workers from across the country would facilitate travel, accommodation, and other issues for the devotees. The party volunteers would work shoulder to shoulder with the RSS workers in this regard.

A booklet about the Ram Janmabhoomi movement, listing the details of the journey, and the leaders who fought for the temple will be distributed. All this would ensure that a euphoria is generated amongst the Hindus which will get reflected when they cast their vote during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

BJP would try to remind the voters that they have been able to fulfil the commitment the party had made to the Hindus of India and the slogan Modi hai to mumkin hai or the latest slogan Modi ki Guarantee ka matlab Guarantee ki Guarantee hai would be the buzz word at the time of election 2024.

Sanjay Kumar is a Professor at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). He is also a Political Analyst. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.