Rajasthan: Will it be a change of government or a change of tradition?

Rajasthan has never re-elected the government since 1998.

Late last year, during the 2022 assembly election in Himachal Pradesh, Bharatiya Janata Party was defending its government in a state which has never re-elected the same government since 1990. So it came up with a slogan “Riwaaj Badlega” (Tradition will change) while Congress kept its campaign focused on “Raaj Badlega” (Government will change).

We know that BJP was defeated and Congress came back to power. In fact, the “Raaj” changed and not the “Riwaaj”. It’s time for a role reversal for Congress and BJP, at least in-terms of sloganeering in Rajasthan, a state like HP which has never re-elected the government since 1998.

Now it is for the Congress to say “Riwaaj Badlega” while BJP will try to campaign for “Raaj Badlega”. It is difficult to say if Rajasthan will go the HP way, which preserved the tradition of alternating the government every election. Or will it go the Kerala way where this trend broke during the 2021 assembly election after several decades, when the Left Democratic Government got re-elected in 2021 after its previous victory in 2016.

Factionalism On Both Sides

The reason for not being able to make even a clever guess is simple – neither the BJP’s house seems to be in order nor that of the Congress party. The BJP’s hunt for a local face to front this election has faced troubles as there seems to be some reluctance amongst the national leadership to recognise ex-Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje’s primacy.

The BJP’s indecision is despite the party realising the importance of local leadership for state level elections, given its recent defeat in the Karnataka assembly elections. On the other hand, Congress suffers from a problem of plenty. The sitting Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot seems to be popular, but his leadership is being challenged by his own ex-deputy and former Rajasthan Congress president Sachin Pilot.

Given that only a few months are left for elections and Congress has not been able to sort out this leadership issue, the party seems to be in a somewhat difficult situation. So on the leadership front both parties have issues and one can’t really say which party enjoys the advantage.

Gehlot’s Big Welfare Bet

But if we move beyond the leadership and try to get a sense of how parties are placed today with regard to the electoral contest, one needs to peep a little bit into other issues. Gehlot knew fully well that there would be some anti-incumbency against the ruling Congress, more so because the state also has a history of changing government. His government has swung into action and initiated various welfare programmes, centred around the slogan of “Bachat, Rahat and Badat” (Savings, Relief, and Growth).

The government’s popular Mehangai (Inflation) Rahat Camp, has already distributed more than five crore guarantee cards. This is estimated to have benefitted more than 1.11 crore families. Under the Chief Minister free domestic electricity scheme, more than 88 lakh families have been registered.

Under the Indira Gandhi Gas Cylinder Subsidy scheme, more than 52 lakh families have been registered. Under the perceived-to-be-popular Indira Gandhi Urban Employment Guarantee Scheme over four lakh families have been registered. There are many such schemes under Ashok Gehlot’s ten guarantee scheme where a large number of households are beneficiaries. As is evident, the ruling Congress party is hoping to reap the electoral benefit from these schemes.

BJP Plots Revival

But BJP is also trying to get its act together. After the Karnataka debacle, BJP’s top leadership has sought to settle festering leadership issues and iron out differences in poll-bound states including Rajasthan.

The first signs of détente between warring factions in Rajasthan BJP were visible at Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rally at Ajmer in May when the former CM Vasundhara Raje was seated next to the PM.

There are enough signals of Vasundhara Raje taking charge of BJP’s leadership for the forthcoming assembly elections. This would put an end to the speculation of either Union minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, or former BJP state unit president Satish Poonia, both of whom are seen to be ardent opponents of Vasundhara Raje, being given the leadership of the party.

A closure to the leadership dispute would certainly boost the electoral prospects of BJP in Rajasthan, though only having a local leadership in place does not guarantee victory in state elections.

The election in Rajasthan is poised at an interesting juncture. Both the contenders of power – the BJP and the Congress – are trying hard to mobilise their voters. But it will take a few more months to get a clearer picture of whether the election is heading for a change of government or of tradition.

Sanjay Kumar is a Professor at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). He is also a Political Analyst. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.