Why the OBC card matters in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls

Despite the BJP making inroads among the OBC voters, OBCs remain the core support base of many regional parties

Looking at the way some opposition parties have aggressively supported and demanded a caste census to enumerate Other Backward Classes (OBC) and the way Prime Minister Narendra Modi had tried to address the issues concerning the weaker sections amongst the OBCs, there is a possibility that the OBC card could become an important issue for voter mobilisation in 2024 Lok Sabha election.

Despite the BJP making inroads among the OBC voters, OBCs remain the core support base of many regional parties. On one hand, the regional parties opposed to the BJP would like to maximise their support amongst the OBC voters, but at the same time the BJP would also like to make further inroads amongst the OBC: If not amongst the dominant OBC castes, at least amongst the non-dominant OBC castes.

BJP’s Inroads Into OBC Vote

It is important to note that amongst the OBCs, various castes amongst the non-dominant OBCs combined together are numerically larger compared to the combined total of various castes amongst the dominant OBCs. This has resulted in BJP focusing more on mobilising the non-dominant OBC castes compared to the dominant OBCs, who anyway are the core supporters of different regional parties in different states.

Evidence from the surveys conducted by Lokniti-CSDS suggest the BJP has been able to make inroads amongst the voters belonging to the OBC castes, more amongst the non-dominant OBC castes compared to the dominant OBC. During the 1996 Lok Sabha elections, 22 percent of the dominant OBCs voted for the BJP, while 17 percent of the non-dominant OBCs voted for it.

But during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, 30 percent of dominant OBCs voted for the BJP while amongst the non-dominant OBC voters it got 43 percent votes. The BJP’s support amongst the OBC voters increased further during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Amongst the dominant OBC voters 40 percent voted for the BJP while amongst the non-dominant OBCs it got 48 percent votes.

Chemistry With Non-Dominant OBCs

The BJP has found it easier to mobilise the non-dominant OBC castes voters compared to the dominant OBC caste voters by building a narrative of non-dominant OBCs being denied their share in social, economic and political power, which have been cornered by the dominant OBC castes.

The evidence suggests that BJP’s narrative seems to have paid dividends and the challenge before the BJP for 2024 election is to at least hold on to its non-dominant OBC support base, if not being able to make further inroads and the party is working hard toward this goal.

PM Modi in his Independence Day speech made several announcements for supporting those who belong to the non-dominant OBC castes. "On Vishwakarma Jayanti, we will launch a scheme with an initial fund of Rs 13,000 crore to Rs 15,000 crore for workers engaged in traditional trade, those who work with tools, use their hands, and are primarily from the OBC sections," the PM had said.

He noted that the Vishwakarma Yojana will benefit barbers, carpenters, tanners, blacksmiths, and various other trades. This plan, introduced in the Budget, would especially assist artisans, craftsmen, and traditional workers in becoming part of local and global supply chains. It is important to note that all these belong to the non-dominant OBC castes in most Indian states.

Clash Of Social Justice Politics

The initiative may also challenge attempts by different state governments to promote OBC welfare, such as Bihar's caste census, the Samajwadi Party's increased representation of OBCs in its party ranks, and Rajasthan's move to increase OBC reservation from 21 percent to 27 percent, among others.

Even as the BJP builds a coalition of diverse castes across states to take on regional satraps, the party has also been progressively pushing politicians from the OBC sections forward. The PM's emphasis on social justice hints at the relevance of social engineering in the BJP's campaign ahead of 2024.

Last year, the Prime Minister made a point of celebrating Vishwakarma Jayanti with ITI students. There is no doubt that all these initiatives are aimed at welfare of those belonging to the non-dominant OBC castes, but one can hardly deny that it is also aimed at mobilising them for political gains.

Regional Parties Lose Out

Over the years, Congress has lost support both amongst the dominant and non-dominant OBC castes. During the 1996 Lok Sabha elections, Congress got 24 percent votes amongst the dominant OBCs and 27 percent amongst the non-dominant OBCs which declined to 13 percent and 15 percent respectively during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

The regional parties have also suffered losses, both amongst the dominant OBCs and amongst non-dominant OBC castes. From 40 percent votes amongst dominant OBC in 1996, it has come down to 33 percent in 2019 and amongst the non-dominant OBC the vote for the regional parties has come down from 43 percent in the 1996 Lok Sabha election to 20 percent.

Clearly the BJP has made massive inroads amongst the non-dominant OBCs, largely at the cost of regional parties, which has witnessed massive erosion in support amongst the non-dominant OBC castes. The demand for a caste census by many regional parties is an effort to send out a message that it is the regional parties which are the real well-wishers of the OBCs.

Given the focus on OBC voters by BJP, Congress and regional parties much before the campaigning begins, it hardly leaves any doubt that the OBC card could take centrestage in political mobilisation for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Sanjay Kumar is a Professor at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). He is also a Political Analyst. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.