BUSINESS
RBI researchers warn against hasty rate cuts
The State of the Economy report underlines the fact that the objective of aligning inflation with the target on a durable basis is far from assured
BUSINESS
Tepid performance of unlisted companies may be the reason for sluggish corporate capex
A report titled “The Role of The Unlisted Corporate Sector in India’s Economy”, by Motilal Oswal economist Nikhil Gupta points out that while the listed part of the corporate sector has been going great guns, making huge profits and reducing its debt, the unlisted corporate sector hasn’t been doing so well
BUSINESS
IMF report points to uneven growth, low productivity in Indian economy
The report says that if 5 percent of the agriculture workforce were to shift into either services or manufacturing, it could contribute up to 1.2 percentage points to value added growth
BUSINESS
Don't take central bank pivots for granted, say flash PMIs
The US Flash Composite PMI for December is at a 5-month high, putting it at odds with Powell’s recent ultra-dovish message
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Panorama | The more the Fed gives, the more the market wants
In today's edition of Moneycontrol Pro Panorama: COP28 holds little importance for NTPC investors, regional political parties and dynasties, generative AI a cybersecurity challenge for businesses, NPS needs more strengthening, and more
BUSINESS
The Fed will have to consider a massive easing of financial conditions
The Chicago Fed’s measure of financial conditions in the US is at its lowest level in a year, indicating substantial easing. Easing financial conditions work against the Fed’s attempt to tighten monetary policy
BUSINESS
Smoke and mirrors in October industrial production numbers
While the year-on-year IIP growth figures for October 2023 are very strong for all sectors, the same can’t be said for month-on-month growth
BUSINESS
Why have jobs as unpaid helpers increased when GDP growth is 7.6 percent?
While the unemployment rate has come down, the rise in the proportion of unpaid helpers and of workers in agriculture point to disguised unemployment
BUSINESS
RBI surveys show disconnect between strong GDP growth and consumer confidence
With GDP growth at 7.8 percent in the June 2023 quarter and 7.6 percent in the September quarter, why aren’t perceptions about income growth and employment growth in the RBI survey better?
BUSINESS
BIS paper says significant tightening could lie ahead even if central banks stop raising policy rates
How realistic are expectations of a soft landing for advanced economies? How did the Fed Funds rate move during previous tightening episodes? Is this time different? The outlook for asset prices depends on answers to these questions
BUSINESS
What to look for in the Q2 GDP numbers
RBI Bulletin’s State of the Economy Report for October 2023 said their economic activity index (EAI) put GDP growth for Q2 2023-24 at 6.8 per cent
BUSINESS
Emkay’s Seshadri Sen says 6%+ economic growth needs recovery in mass incomes
Adverse geopolitical outcomes, according to the market observer, pose a major risk though the worst have been digested by markets
BUSINESS
How do the poll-bound states fare on the Misery Index?
According to the Misery Index, Rajasthan is the most miserable, while Chhattisgarh is the least. But a more nuanced look is needed, taking into account how many of those counted as employed are actually in disguised unemployment
BUSINESS
The contradictions at the heart of OpenAI
The belief that a technology as powerful as AI can be overseen by a non-profit entity is a Utopian one
BUSINESS
Is this the end of Higher-for-longer?
The fall in inflation in the US confirms the view of investors that both inflation and interest rates are headed lower next year, leading to a rally in the bond and equity markets
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender: Ode to consumption
Can consumption continue to support growth? We'll soon know how strong festive demand has been
BUSINESS
Dependency on free foodgrains signals the demographic dividend can become a nightmare
A Niti Aayog document says, ‘’Despite the large public expenditure, gains in the food security and nutritional outcomes in India have been slow. India accounts for roughly 30 percent of the global burden of hunger.’’
BUSINESS
Job growth in India much lower than increase in working age population
The figure for employment in agriculture and allied sectors in 2020-21 in India was the highest since 2008-09 and is a sign of disguised unemployment
BUSINESS
Manufacturing PMI weakens in festive season
The PMI data highlighted a particularly marked slowdown in the consumer goods sector
BUSINESS
Average working hours per week a mere 42.5, far lower than Narayana Murthy’s 70-hour benchmark
The government’s Periodic Labour Force Survey says the average workweek was 42.5 hours in April-June 2023, compared to 52.6 hours in April-June 2018
BUSINESS
Moneycontrol Pro Weekender: Now is not the time for forward guidance
It’s pointless to ascribe day-to-day movements in the markets to the fundamentals — all that may have happened is that bond shorts were covering
BUSINESS
India’s festive demand a sign of increasing consumer confidence
Unlike the export-oriented economies of East and Southeast Asia or investment-driven China, it is domestic consumption that has powered India’s growth.
BUSINESS
US bond yields dip despite better-than-expected flash PMI
Although bond yields have come down since Bill Ackman and Bill Gross said the US economy was slowing, the advance PMI for the US shows surprising strength
BUSINESS
Is higher household borrowing a sign of consumer confidence or consumer distress?
The MPC minutes imply that while lenders should be cautious, an increase in household borrowing is not a sign of distress, but instead a signal of increasing confidence that will support consumption and also increase capex, which in turn could power the economy
