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Budget Express 2026

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Ishaan Gera

Associate Editor

Moneycontrol

RBI’s February rate pattern contrasts with fluid inflation, growth projections

BUSINESS

RBI’s February rate pattern contrasts with fluid inflation, growth projections

Early fiscal-year forecasts are often revised quickly, keeping focus on evolving macro signals

India’s defence imports have been tilting towards the US

BUSINESS

India’s defence imports have been tilting towards the US

Trade deal reinforces long-running move towards the US

India–US trade deal could squeeze UK and Japan exports to India, China relatively insulated

BUSINESS

India–US trade deal could squeeze UK and Japan exports to India, China relatively insulated

Tariff cuts for US goods could reshape competition in Indian market, Moneycontrol analysis shows

India–US trade deal could pressure $2.6 billion of South Asian exports to the US

BUSINESS

India–US trade deal could pressure $2.6 billion of South Asian exports to the US

Lower tariffs give Indian exporters a decisive edge over Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka

Services PMI rebounds to 58.5 in January, signalling strong start to 2026

BUSINESS

Services PMI rebounds to 58.5 in January, signalling strong start to 2026

Momentum in services mirrors pickup in manufacturing; EU and US trades deal expected to lift growth outlook

India’s growth to get at least 20-30 bps boost with US trade deal; GDP growth could cross 7% in FY27, say economists 

BUSINESS

India’s growth to get at least 20-30 bps boost with US trade deal; GDP growth could cross 7% in FY27, say economists 

Easing trade uncertainty could revive foreign investment inflows, stabilise the rupee and allow the RBI to reduce its recent heavy foreign exchange interventions

India’s tariff edge puts Bangladesh, Pakistan textiles and ASEAN food exports under pressure in US market

BUSINESS

India’s tariff edge puts Bangladesh, Pakistan textiles and ASEAN food exports under pressure in US market

Even small tariff gaps could shift sourcing in categories where margins are thin

How India’s 18% US tariff translates into a near-60% competitive advantage

INDIA

How India’s 18% US tariff translates into a near-60% competitive advantage

Trade-weighted duties on Indian exports fall sharply to 10.7%, giving exporters a bigger edge than the headline rate suggests

India-US trade deal to offer relief to a third of exports hit hard by 50% tariff: Moneycontrol analysis

BUSINESS

India-US trade deal to offer relief to a third of exports hit hard by 50% tariff: Moneycontrol analysis

Tariff shock between September and November wiped out nearly $4 billion in shipments, hitting labour-intensive sectors the hardest

Diamonds, wigs, cucumbers and carpets exporters set for rebound as India–US trade deal eases tariffs

BUSINESS

Diamonds, wigs, cucumbers and carpets exporters set for rebound as India–US trade deal eases tariffs

Labour-intensive and value-heavy segments had seen sharp market share losses amid tariff uncertainty

Mirzapur to make a comeback as India–US announce trade deal

BUSINESS

Mirzapur to make a comeback as India–US announce trade deal

Carpet, handicraft and agri exporters hit hardest by US tariff risks could see demand revive

India gets lower tariffs than most South and Southeast Asian peers like Pakistan, Bangladesh and Vietnam

BUSINESS

India gets lower tariffs than most South and Southeast Asian peers like Pakistan, Bangladesh and Vietnam

India is subject to an 18 percent tariff rate after a trade deal, which is lower than or equal to most economies in South Asia and ASEAN. By comparison, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Taiwan and Vietnam face tariffs of 20 percent

Over $8 billion of India’s exports may still face higher tariffs even after India-US trade deal

BUSINESS

Over $8 billion of India’s exports may still face higher tariffs even after India-US trade deal

Donald Trump on February 2 announced a first tranche of trade deal with India, bringing down reciprocal tariff to 18 percent from 50 percent

India’s external assistance tilts towards Latin America; Chabahar shows Rs 400 crore write-off

BUSINESS

India’s external assistance tilts towards Latin America; Chabahar shows Rs 400 crore write-off

Between FY23 and FY27, assistance to Latin America has risen more than 40-fold

Tax defaults in India surge 5.7 times to Rs 20 lakh crore in 3 years with legacy defaults rising nearly 8 times

BUDGET

Tax defaults in India surge 5.7 times to Rs 20 lakh crore in 3 years with legacy defaults rising nearly 8 times

The data captures tax demands in cases where the taxpayers either don’t have any assets that the department can attach to discharge the tax dues, or the taxpayers are absconding and untraceable.

Factory activity picks up, rises to 55.4 in January

BUSINESS

Factory activity picks up, rises to 55.4 in January

Business confidence slipped to its lowest in three-and-a-half years during January with over 80% of firms forecasting no change in output growth

Karnataka is biggest gainer, Madhya Pradesh biggest loser under 16th Finance Commission formula

BUSINESS

Karnataka is biggest gainer, Madhya Pradesh biggest loser under 16th Finance Commission formula

Large, population-heavy states also see reduced allocations. Uttar Pradesh loses Rs 4,884 crore, while West Bengal sees a cut of Rs 4,701 crore.

FM Sitharaman's ninth Budget in nine charts

BUSINESS

FM Sitharaman's ninth Budget in nine charts

Capex is set to rise by double digits for yet another year, as defence, science take centre stage

Space, telecom and science see capex boost in FY27; steel, atomic energy and petroleum face sharp cuts

BUSINESS

Space, telecom and science see capex boost in FY27; steel, atomic energy and petroleum face sharp cuts

The Department of Science and Technology (DST) has seen a sixfold increase in capex to Rs 20,085 crore in FY27, compared with just Rs 3,083 crore in FY26 (RE)

Sensex posts worst Budget-day fall in 6 years

BUSINESS

Sensex posts worst Budget-day fall in 6 years

The benchmark Sensex fell 2% on Budget day, closing at 80,722.94

Defence Budget gets a double digit boost to Rs 5.9 lakh crore post Operation Sindoor

BUSINESS

Defence Budget gets a double digit boost to Rs 5.9 lakh crore post Operation Sindoor

Over the past decade, the defence Budget has nearly doubled, reflecting a steady push towards modernisation, indigenisation and higher operational readiness

Finance Minister sets Debt to GDP ratio for FY27 at 55.6 percent in Budget

BUSINESS

Finance Minister sets Debt to GDP ratio for FY27 at 55.6 percent in Budget

India’s debt to GDP ratio was below 50 percent in FY19, but rose to 51.9 percent in FY20 and further to 62 percent during the pandemic

FM Sitharaman increases India’s capex to Rs 12.2 lakh crore in FY27 Budget

BUSINESS

FM Sitharaman increases India’s capex to Rs 12.2 lakh crore in FY27 Budget

The Budget estimate is broadly in line with the Moneycontrol poll of 20 economists, which had projected nominal GDP growth of 10.1 percent and capital spending of Rs 12 lakh crore in the coming fiscal

GST collections at 3-month high of Rs 1.93 lakh crore, up 6.2% in January

BUSINESS

GST collections at 3-month high of Rs 1.93 lakh crore, up 6.2% in January

Domestic transactions accounted for Rs 1.41 lakh crore, up 4.8 percent

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