India would still need 29 LPG tankers a month, even with 50% jump in domestic output

India’s LPG import basket is also highly concentrated in West Asia.

• India needs 29-34 LPG tankers monthly despite output increases
• LPG imports stay over 1.34M tonnes despite 50% output increase
• Delhi's LPG refill cycles shorter than average in urban areas

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India would still need 29-34 LPG tankers a month to meet domestic demand even after substantially expanding cooking gas production, assuming a capacity of 46,000 tonnes per vessel, a Moneycontrol analysis shows.

The government is estimating domestic demand to grow to 2.9 million tonnes per month in FY27.

A 30 percent increase in LPG output would still leave a deficit of over 1.4 million tonnes per month, requiring imports of around 1.56 million tonnes. Even under a 50 percent increase scenario, imports would remain above 1.34 million tonnes, indicating structural dependence.

India’s dependence on imported LPG has remained elevated, as domestic production has consistently failed to keep pace with rising consumption over the past two decades.

Monthly LPG consumption has nearly six-folded from 535,000 tonnes in 1998-99 to over 3.13 million tonnes in 2024-25, driven by rising household penetration and clean cooking initiatives such as the Ujjwala scheme. In contrast, production has grown much more slowly—from 360,000 tonnes to about 1.28 million tonnes over the same period.

India’s LPG import basket is also highly concentrated in West Asia. In 2024, the UAE ($5.8 billion), Qatar ($3.6 billion), Saudi Arabia ($2.4 billion), and Kuwait ($2.3 billion) were the top suppliers, underscoring the South Asian country’s exposure to geopolitical risks in the region.

It will now need to tap alternative sources such as the US, Canada and Algeria.

At the consumer level, urban centres could feel the impact of a prolonged supply disruption more acutely. Data on cylinder utilisation shows Chandigarh and Delhi have among the shortest refill cycles—19 and 21 days, respectively—compared with the national average of 30 days. The government has set a cap of 25 days for refills in urban areas and 45 days in rural areas.