MC INTERVIEW India key country to watch for the next decade; war could accelerate renewables shift: Ernie Bower

Ernie Bower

• India is emerging as a key player in a multipolar global order
• India poised to diversify energy sources and investments
• Future growth for India lies in Southeast Asia and Africa trade

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Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the evolving global economic order could accelerate changes in energy markets, investment flows and global supply chains, according to Ernie Bower, president and CEO of Bower Group Asia. In an interview with Moneycontrol, Bower said India is emerging as a key country to watch in the coming decade as the world moves toward a more multipolar order. He also argued that while the current conflict may not immediately end the dominance of the petrodollar, it is already pushing countries to diversify financial and energy strategies. Below are edited excerpts from the interview:

The Gulf countries are considering reviewing investments they plan to make in the US. Do you think this war could mark the end of the petrodollar hegemony?

I don't think this war itself will break the camel’s back. But I do think that there is already movement in this direction. More and more countries, because of geopolitics, are thinking about yen-denominated or renminbi-denominated financing, and that sense of balance is driving a lot of decision-making. There is a sense that they need more options, especially in countries like Indonesia and Malaysia. I think we will see continued growth of optionality.

Within that paradigm, do you think there is space for a BRICS-type currency, and where does India stand in all this?

India is probably the most important country in the world to watch for the next decade. Multipolarity is going to make a giant leap forward because of the way countries and companies are responding to geopolitical chaos. I don’t think this chaos gets better in the near term. The US and China are not going to figure this out quickly, even when leaders meet.

If you look at India’s foreign policy, Indian policymakers have been anticipating this moment for a long time. India is positioned in a very important way to be a centre point in the global system. On the BRICS currency, I think it would be very hard to put that together, but it would be interesting to see how the idea evolves.

About 80 percent of oil and over 60 percent of Asia's LNG come from West Asian countries. Do you think there will be a pivot in energy security strategies?

China has already done a lot in this direction, but other countries will also have to act. Your energy supply is not completely controlled, but it is largely influenced by global choke points. China is probably leading the way on renewables, and I think they will accelerate that push and become world leaders.

Where do you think India stands in this energy transition?

India is well-positioned to diversify its energy sources. It needs to look more towards Asia and Africa. China has already been very aggressive in Africa in areas such as critical minerals, mining and even agriculture. But India is taking a more strategic view of Africa and has long-standing ties with many African countries because of its diaspora. Energy imports from Africa will be an interesting area to watch.

On renewable energy and technologies like AI, India often frames the issue in terms of competition with China, which can sometimes be limiting. India and China could actually work together in many of these areas in Africa.

If not exports, should India open up more on the investment side?

That is going to happen. You have to open up on investments, and Indian companies also have to play a bigger role in the world. Once India embraces this opening up, Indian investment in the rest of the world, particularly in Asia and Africa, will be a game-changer. Foreign direct investment in India could triple in two years if India plays its cards right.

Do you think what Apple did in China is replicable in a more fractured world?

I do, because look at the amount of investment that is going to be needed for AI. AI is going to change the way we all live and work, and India was made for the AI revolution. However, there are challenges in terms of computing power and energy. These will require out-of-the-box thinking.

India has a major advantage: it has more trained IT professionals, engineers and coders than almost anywhere in the world. International companies understand this. But India will need serious economic reforms and focused policy support to fully realise that opportunity.

How can Indian boardrooms prepare for this wave of investment?

You have what I call the “big country disease.” When you have a huge domestic market and some level of protection, companies often focus only on growth at home. But when Indian boardrooms begin to look outward, they will realise they are more competitive globally than they may think.

India also enjoys significant geopolitical goodwill right now. Agreements such as the comprehensive economic partnerships and free trade deals with countries like Australia and the UK help strengthen that position.

Do you think India missed the bus on multilateral trade agreements such as RCEP?

I understand India's rationale for staying out of RCEP. India will need to assess whether such arrangements are the right vehicles. In the current world, bilaterals and minilaterals seem to be flourishing.

At some point, it might make sense for India to plug into something like RCEP, but I do not think that will happen in the near term.

Only about 9 percent of India’s trade is with ASEAN, and Africa’s share is even smaller. Should India reassess its trade strategy?

Yes, this is urgent. There are clear benefits from expanding trade with Western economies, but the future growth will come from Southeast Asia and Africa. That is a missed opportunity right now, especially because ASEAN and African countries do not want to be dominated by a single power.

PLI schemes have boosted electronics manufacturing. Are they viable in the long run?

Incentives like those under the PLI scheme are one necessary condition, but they are not sufficient on their own. You also need openness, clear regulations and an investor-friendly posture. Incentives may encourage companies to consider investing, but they will not be enough by themselves.

The big questions remain infrastructure, governance, and talent. India is making progress in these areas and moving in the right direction. Ultimately, the most important factor is an investment-friendly culture and clarity about which sectors the country wants to attract investment into.